- Yamamoto posts 2.10 ERA and 0.82 WHIP for 16-6 Dodgers
- Roupp counters with 2.38 ERA and 9.53 strikeouts per nine
- Oracle Park features 0.93 runs park factor Thursday night
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Yoshinobu Yamamoto carries a 2.10 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, while Landen Roupp sits at 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 7.36 K/9, Landen Roupp at 9.53 K/9.
K projections: Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 5.2 (line 5.5)
Landen Roupp projected at 4.9 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds a 68.9% career NRFI rate, Landen Roupp at 70.8%. Combined average: 69.9%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 4.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. San Francisco Giants batters K at 22.0%, Los Angeles Dodgers batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 50.5%.
- That creates a slim -0.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -102 / YRFI -120 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Junior Valentine runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 17-23 (42.5%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Los Angeles Dodgers K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oracle Park carries a 0.93 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: McCovey Cove in right field; Bay breezes suppress HRs; Chilly climate.
- First pitch forecast: 56F with 12 mph winds from the W. Humidity: 81%.
- Temperature drops from 56F at first pitch to 51F by the late innings.
- Wind advisory: 12 mph winds from the W may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Junior Valentine.
- Career NRFI rate: 54.2% across 83 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.041 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 2.1 combined runs, with Los Angeles Dodgers projected for 2.1 and San Francisco Giants for 0.0.
- That's 5.4 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.1 runs.