- Chad Patrick brings a 2.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP to the mound
- Kyle Leahy posts a 5.52 ERA and 1.67 WHIP for St. Louis
- Projected total stands at just 5.1 runs for this matchup
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Chad Patrick holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Chad Patrick carries a 2.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while Kyle Leahy sits at 5.52 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Chad Patrick at 5.14 K/9, Kyle Leahy at 6.75 K/9.
K projections: Chad Patrick at 3.8 (line 3.5)
Kyle Leahy projected at 4.0 (line 3.5).
Chad Patrick has a 78.3% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Kyle Leahy.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Chad Patrick (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Kyle Leahy (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.9% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. St. Louis Cardinals batters K at 22.4%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 27.9%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 60.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.2%.
- That creates a moderate 9.7% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -105 / YRFI -115 at FanDuel.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 40-39 (50.6%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 27.9% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Busch Stadium carries a 1.01 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.04 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Retractable roof; Relatively neutral dimensions; Gateway Arch viewable from stadium.
- Roof: Retractable.
- First pitch forecast: 78F with 14 mph winds from the SSW. Humidity: 43%.
- Wind advisory: 14 mph winds from the SSW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Emil Jimenez.
- Career NRFI rate: 55.1% across 89 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 1.018 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.1 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.6 and St. Louis Cardinals for 2.5.
- That's 3.9 runs below the posted total of 9.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.