Chicago White Sox 2026: the sharp bettor’s complete edge guide

The White Sox are baseball’s most mispriced team heading into 2026, and the data screams positive regression. After posting a 60-102 record in 2025 that masked a 71-91 Pythagorean expectation (the largest such gap in all of MLB), Chicago enters the season with a consensus win total of 66.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel, sitting roughly 2-3 wins below where every major projection system pegs them. That discrepancy, combined with a 58% ATS cover rate in 2025, a historically weak AL Central, and a young core entering Year 2, creates actionable edges across win totals, run lines, game totals, and player props. This is a team the market still treats as a doormat, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story.

The rebuild is real but accelerating. Chicago improved by 19 wins from 2024’s historically awful 41-121, and the second-half offensive surge (101 wRC+ from July 4 onward) showed what the lineup looks like when the prospects arrive. The question for bettors is not whether the White Sox are good; they are not. The question is whether they are 66 wins bad. The evidence suggests they are not.

The win total is the marquee play

The 2026 consensus win total lands at 66.5 (DraftKings -110 over, FanDuel -110 over), with BetMGM and bet365 slightly higher at 67.5 and Caesars at 65.5. Every major projection system overshoots these lines: FanGraphs Depth Charts projects 68.6 wins, PECOTA sits at 69, and a WAR-based model from South Side Sox lands at 74 with a 95% confidence interval of 64-84. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS is the most cautious, implying roughly 65-70 wins while conceding the team has “improved to the point of just being an ordinarily terrible team.” Only the Dimers model projects under (roughly 62), and that system was not optimized for Pythagorean regression.

The Pythagorean case is the headliner. In 2025, Chicago scored 647 runs and allowed 742 (run differential of -95), which translates to a 71-91 expected record. The 11-win shortfall was driven almost entirely by a 15-36 record in one-run games and league-worst clutch hitting (82 OPS+ with RISP, 28th in MLB). One-run records are among the least sticky stats in baseball, regressing sharply toward .500. If the White Sox simply play to a .400 winning percentage in one-run games in 2026 (still well below average), that alone recovers 5-6 wins.

Historical context reinforces the over lean. The White Sox preseason win total results over the past five seasons tell an instructive story:

The pattern is clear: the market overvalued this team during its 2022-2024 collapse, then undervalued it in 2025 once expectations bottomed out. The 2026 line at 66.5 represents a 12-win jump from last year’s preseason number but still sits below every credible projection system. With PECOTA itself acknowledging it has been “overly optimistic about this team over the past 10 years,” the current models have already applied a pessimistic filter, and they still project above the market line.

Win total verdict: Over 66.5 at DraftKings or FanDuel (-110). Confidence: 7 out of 10. The Pythagorean gap, projection consensus, and division weakness all favor the over. The main risk is rotation fragility, which could blow up the floor.

The AL Central is nobody’s division

No team in the AL Central is projected for 90 wins in 2026, making it the weakest division in baseball by a wide margin. PECOTA’s projected division winner (Kansas City, 84.4 wins) carries the lowest win total of any projected champion by more than four games.

Minnesota lost Pablo Lopez to Tommy John and is in a soft rebuild. Cleveland’s offense continues to deteriorate. Detroit is counting on Tarik Skubal’s walk year. The division is soft enough that the White Sox could realistically finish fourth ahead of the Twins, and the compressed standings mean more competitive games within the division, which benefits the team’s ATS profile.

A rotation built on potential and prayer

Manager Will Venable named his five-man rotation on March 17: Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, and Erick Fedde. The group features two intriguing young arms, a Japan returnee, a workmanlike innings eater, and a reclamation project. Combined, they represent both the team’s highest ceiling and lowest floor.

Shane Smith (SP1, RHP, age 25) is the jewel. The Rule 5 pick earned an All-Star selection in his debut season, posting a 3.81 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 146.1 innings across 29 starts. His 1.20 WHIP and seam-shifted changeup (which plays like a lefty sweeper at 90 mph) give him genuine mid-rotation upside. His second-half run was particularly strong: 3.09 ERA with an average of 5.5 innings per start over his final 10 outings. Statcast data shows a .296 wOBA against and 6.7% barrel rate allowed, both solid numbers, though his xERA of 4.01 and xFIP of 4.23 suggest some overperformance. He struggled in spring training (10.13 ERA), which warrants early-season caution, but his 2025 trajectory is the data point that matters most. His ATS record in 2025 was 15-12-0 across 27 starts with a line, making him the only White Sox starter worth backing on the run line. Smith gets the Opening Day nod against Milwaukee on March 26.

Sean Burke (SP2, RHP, age 26) has the best raw stuff in the rotation, touching 100 mph regularly, but his 4.29 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 62 walks in 134.1 innings in 2025 expose the command problems that got him demoted to Triple-A in August. Burke’s monthly splits tell the story: a 7.71 ERA in April, a dominant 2.73 in May, then a slow fade through summer. His 10.6% walk rate is simply too high for a starting pitcher, though his 8.9 K/9 shows the strikeout stuff is present. Spring 2026 numbers (4.97 ERA across 12.2 innings) have not quieted concerns. Burke starts are high-variance events. Target game overs and YRFI when he pitches, particularly on the road.

Anthony Kay (SP3, LHP, age 30) is the most fascinating rotation gamble. After a failed MLB career (5.59 ERA, 1.61 WHIP across 85.1 innings with the Mets, Blue Jays, and Cubs), Kay reinvented himself in Japan with Yokohama, posting a 1.74 ERA with a 57.8% ground ball rate (both NPB-best) in 2025. His combined Japan line across 2024-2025: 291.2 innings, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 249 strikeouts, 94 walks. The White Sox signed him to a 2-year, $12 million deal hoping for a repeat of what Erick Fedde did in 2024 after returning from Korea. Kay’s spring has been encouraging (2.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 5 starts), and his ground ball profile should interact well with an infield defense anchored by Colson Montgomery. The risk: his prior MLB walk rate (12%) was nearly double his Japan mark (6.8%), and NPB-to-MLB transitions carry enormous variance.

Davis Martin (SP4, RHP, age 29) is the steady hand: 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 142.2 innings in 2025, leading the team in average innings per start (5.5). His five-pitch arsenal (four-seam, slider, changeup, cutter, curveball) gives him multiple looks, but a 15.9% strikeout rate (career-low) limits his ceiling. Martin is the definition of a league-average back-end starter, which on this team makes him the most reliable arm after Smith. He comes with durability questions after Tommy John in 2023 and a forearm strain in June 2025. Spring reports have been positive (3.00 ERA, 10 strikeouts). Martin starts are low-variance, modest-total-scoring affairs. Lean NRFI and game unders.

Erick Fedde (SP5, RHP, age 33) is the reclamation project signed for just $1.5 million. After a career-best 3.30 ERA with the White Sox and Cardinals in 2024, Fedde cratered in 2025: 5.49 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, -0.2 fWAR across three teams (St. Louis, Atlanta, Milwaukee). He was DFA’d twice and released once. His xwOBA allowed jumped to .355, and his barrel rate allowed (7.9%) ticked up. The White Sox are betting on familiarity with the coaching staff and a possible bounce-back. His Statcast data shows the stuff is not dead (90.2 mph average exit velocity allowed, 42.6% hard-hit rate are acceptable), but the command evaporated. Fedde starts are fade candidates until he proves otherwise. Target opponent moneyline and game overs.

Offense has a power ceiling and a platoon floor

The 2025 White Sox offense was objectively bad: 27th in runs (647), 27th in batting average (.232), 28th in slugging (.373). But that full-season line obscures a dramatic second-half transformation. After Colson Montgomery’s July 4 call-up, the team slashed .246/.312/.409 with a 101 wRC+, essentially league average. The 2026 projected lineup, with a full season of Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, and (eventually) Kyle Teel, should represent a meaningful offensive upgrade.

The biggest risk is a severe left-handed lean. Montgomery, Murakami, Meidroth, and Benintendi all hit from the left side; Quero is a switch-hitter. Against left-handed pitching, this lineup will be notably weaker, and the platoon splits should be a core part of any daily handicapping process. When a quality LHP is on the mound against Chicago, the batting order looks markedly worse.

Colson Montgomery is the franchise centerpiece. His 71-game debut produced 21 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 3.3 bWAR, making him only the fourth rookie shortstop in MLB history to hit 20-plus homers with a 125-plus wRC+ (joining Tatis Jr., Correa, and Seager). His 14.5% barrel rate and 89.4 mph average exit velocity are elite. The 29.2% strikeout rate is the concern, and projections see regression: ZiPS has him at .216/.292/.410 with 23 homers, while THE BAT X is more bullish at .228/.306/.426 with 27.

Munetaka Murakami is the lineup’s highest-variance player. The former NPB star signed a 2-year, $34 million deal and is projected by Steamer for .219/.340/.449 with 30 home runs and a .789 OPS (team-best). His power is legitimate; 265 career NPB homers at age 26 is remarkable. But the risk is real: his contact rate against pitches 93-plus mph in Japan was just 63%, and the average MLB fastball sits at 94.1 mph. THE BAT X projects a 37.5% strikeout rate. On Bovada, his season HR prop is set at 26.5 (over -120, under -110). Given the projection consensus of 26-34 homers, the over at -120 holds marginal value, but the variance is enormous. Monitor his first two weeks closely.

The loss of Luis Robert Jr. (traded to the Mets for Luisangel Acuna and Ronald Acuna Jr.) removes the team’s best baserunner (33 of the team’s 85 stolen bases). The 2026 lineup will be slower and less dynamic on the bases, though the team’s 80% stolen base success rate in 2025 (6th in MLB) suggests efficient decision-making will continue with fewer attempts.

Kyle Teel, who slashed .315/.395/.895 OPS in the second half (first in OBP and third in OPS among catchers), is sidelined 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain from the WBC. His absence forces Edgar Quero into the starting role, and Quero’s bat (.254/.332/.377 projected) is a meaningful downgrade. Track Teel’s return date carefully; his activation could shift team total assessments.

Bullpen transformation anchored by Dominguez

The 2025 bullpen was a disaster: last in MLB with just 25 saves, the most walks of any bullpen in baseball, and a -11.22 WPA (worst since 2000) in 2024. The offseason addressed this directly. Seranthony Dominguez arrives on a 2-year, $20 million deal as the first defined closer the team has had in two years. His 2025 profile is impressive: 3.16 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 97.7 mph average fastball velocity (90th percentile), a .200 xBA against, and World Series experience with Toronto. The catch is a 13.8% walk rate that will generate blown saves.

Behind Dominguez, the White Sox have assembled genuine high-leverage depth. Jordan Leasure slides into setup after finishing 2025 with a 2.70 ERA over his final 26 appearances (19 of 22 scoreless). Grant Taylor is the most exciting arm: 54 strikeouts in 36.2 innings (13.3 K/9), zero home runs allowed in those 36.2 innings, and a fastball averaging 98 mph with elite extension. He is targeted for 100 innings in a multi-inning role. Jordan Hicks, acquired from Boston, touched 100.7 mph in his first spring outing and provides flexible middle-to-late relief.

The major loss is Mike Vasil (2.50 ERA, 101 innings in 2025), who is out for the season following Tommy John surgery. Vasil’s absence thins the middle relief and removes the team’s most versatile swingman.

The bullpen upgrade should directly improve the team’s one-run game record (15-36 in 2025). With a defined closer and legitimate setup arms, expect regression toward a more sustainable close-game winning percentage, which directly supports the win total over.

Rate Field and Chicago’s weather create a monthly playbook

Rate Field (renamed from Guaranteed Rate Field in December 2024) has evolved from a notorious hitter’s paradise into an essentially neutral park. The three-year rolling park factor for runs sits at 0.965, slightly pitcher-friendly. Home runs are near neutral overall (0.993) but slightly favor left-handed hitters (1.018 HR factor for LHH vs. 0.947 for RHH). Doubles are suppressed at 0.895, and triples are nearly nonexistent (0.648 factor). The park plays as “great for home runs, but not much else,” per Sox Machine’s historical analysis.

The dimensions are symmetrical (330 feet down the lines, 400 to center) with brought-in fences that have boosted homer totals since 2000. Unlike Wrigley Field, where lake breezes create wild day-to-day variance, Rate Field is sheltered by surrounding infrastructure, meaning wind effects are muted.

Monthly betting playbook matters here. April games in Chicago regularly feature temperatures in the 50s, suppressing ball carry and depressing scoring. This creates early-season under opportunities at Rate Field, particularly when the back-end rotation is pitching. By June through August, summer heat and humidity boost fly ball carry, tilting the balance toward overs. Target overs in warm-weather home games when Burke or Fedde are on the mound; lean unders in April home games across the rotation.

The White Sox home record has been trending upward: .284 winning percentage in 2024, improving to .407 (33-48) in 2025. They are getting closer to being a genuinely competitive home team, and Rate Field’s neutral profile means the roster’s strengths and weaknesses are not artificially amplified.

Defense remains a clear liability

The 2025 White Sox ranked 27th in DRS (-10) and 28th per FanGraphs defensive evaluation (-37.2 runs). This is a team that bleeds runs on the defensive side, and the 2026 roster does not dramatically change that equation.

The bright spot is Colson Montgomery at shortstop, who posted +6 DRS and +4 OAA in just 49 games, projecting to elite-tier defense over a full season. The black hole is Andrew Benintendi in left field, who has accumulated -24 OAA and -20 DRS since 2023, making him one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. He belongs at DH full-time, but his offensive profile (.251/.317/.407 projected) does not justify a pure DH role.

Catcher defense is notably poor. Edgar Quero posted -13 catcher framing runs in 2025, the worst mark in all of MLB, with a 35.6% shadow zone strike rate (lowest among catchers with 750-plus called pitches). The new ABS challenge system debuting in 2026, which gives each team two challenges per game, could marginally benefit the White Sox by providing recourse against missed calls. But the system affects less than 2% of total pitches; framing still matters enormously, and Quero’s deficiency will cost the pitching staff.

The defensive profile interacts poorly with the pitching staff. Jordan Leasure’s 49.3% fly ball rate and the rotation’s general fly ball tendency (8th-highest in MLB in 2025) put extra pressure on an outfield defense anchored by Benintendi’s limited range and Luisangel Acuna’s developing reads. Bettors should factor in the defensive drag when setting expectations for pitching performance, particularly in the early innings before Dominguez and Taylor take over.

Seven players sharps should watch daily

1. Colson Montgomery (SS, age 23). The primary daily market: total bases and HR props. His 14.5% barrel rate and .529 slugging in 71 games create a high-ceiling, low-floor profile. Target over on total bases in warm-weather home games against right-handed pitching. His 29.2% strikeout rate makes under on hits viable when facing elite arms. Season HR prop was discussed at 27.5; projections range from 23 to 27. Lean under at 27.5 given full-season regression expectations, but the over is alive if he stays healthy.

2. Munetaka Murakami (1B, age 26). The highest-variance prop player in the lineup. Bovada set his season HR at 26.5 (over -120). Projections cluster at 26-34, making the over marginally positive expected value. The daily angle: target over on strikeouts against starters averaging 96-plus mph fastballs. Conversely, his HR prop becomes a strong over against soft-tossing lefties and in elevated parks. His adjustment period to MLB velocity will determine the first month of his prop lines.

3. Shane Smith (SP, age 25). The K prop is the primary play. His 8.9 K/9 and elite fastball (regularly 98 mph) translate to consistent K over opportunities, particularly at home against high-strikeout lineups. His 2025 ATS record (15-12-0) makes him the only starter worth backing on the run line. NRFI leans his direction based on his second-half performance, though spring wildness (10.13 ERA) warrants early-season monitoring.

4. Sean Burke (SP, age 26). Burke starts are game-total plays, not sides. His 1.45 WHIP and 4.2 BB/9 create first-inning chaos. Target YRFI when he starts, especially on the road. His 10-strikeout ceiling also means K overs are live in matchups against free-swinging lineups. Fade White Sox moneyline in Burke road starts until his command stabilizes.

5. Kyle Teel (C, age 24, returning from injury). Upon return from his hamstring strain, Teel becomes a hits/total bases over target at home against RHP. His .312 home batting average in 2025 and 125 wRC+ make him one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. Hard fade against LHP (.546 OPS split). His activation date is a key calendar marker for shifting team total assessments upward.

6. Lenyn Sosa (DH/1B, age 25). Sosa’s 22 homers provide legitimate power from the right side, but his .292 OBP and September collapse (.200 AVG, 34.9% K rate) expose a free-swinging approach. Target total bases over against lefties, where his power plays up. K over props are viable against quality arms.

7. Chase Meidroth (2B, age 24). Bovada set his season hits at 119.5 (-115 each way) and HR at 8.5 (over -110, under -120). Meidroth is a contact-and-walk player, not a power bat. Under on HR is the lean. Over on hits in favorable matchups is worth monitoring, particularly given his projected .344 OBP and leadoff role.

The schedule creates clear calendar windows

The White Sox open on March 26 at Milwaukee, marking the first time the franchise has faced an NL opponent on Opening Day. The first six games are on the road (3 at Milwaukee, 3 at Miami), both in roof parks, avoiding early Chicago cold. The home opener on April 2 against a rebuilding Toronto team is a favorable entry point.

Windows to TARGET (back the White Sox):

The April 2-8 homestand (Toronto, Baltimore) catches the team in a honeymoon period with the home crowd, facing a rebuilding Blue Jays club and a Baltimore team that may be overvalued. Smith and Burke get the first two home starts. Lean White Sox run line in the Toronto series.

The May 15-17 Crosstown Series against the Cubs at Rate Field is a premium motivational spot. Even bad White Sox teams play up in the Crosstown, and the added emotional energy creates value on the home side.

The late-September home stretch (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Colorado from September 8-27) features three of baseball’s weakest opponents. If the White Sox are still within range of their win total, this stretch provides soft games to push over.

Windows to FADE (bet against the White Sox):

The June 9-23 road gauntlet is brutal: at Atlanta (3), at the Dodgers (3), then at the Mets (3). Three premium NL opponents on the road in two weeks. Fade the White Sox moneyline aggressively and target opponent run lines.

The early-April stretch at Kansas City (April 9-12, 4 games) is the first division road series, and the Royals project as the division’s best team. With cold April weather in KC and a lineup still finding its rhythm, this is an under and opponent-lean spot.

Any post-elimination September road games historically see motivational fade from non-contending teams. If the White Sox are eliminated early, fade road moneylines in September.

Historical betting data reveals persistent edges

The 2025 White Sox were one of baseball’s best ATS teams despite their poor record. Per Covers.com, they posted a 94-68-0 run line record (58.0% cover rate), ranking among the most profitable run line bets in the league. This is a textbook “bad team that keeps games close” profile: their run differential suggested a 71-win team compressed into a 60-win record by one-run losses. The market consistently overpriced their opponents, creating run line value.

Additional 2025 betting data:

• Over/under record: 75-78-9, a slight under lean
• F5 run line: covered 61.9% of games tracked (+17% ROI per BetMGM mid-season data)
• Road team total under: 64.3% hit rate (+21% ROI) across 42 away games sampled
• Moneyline as underdog: 54-93 (36.7%) in 147 games, poor outright but profitable at the right price points
• As extreme underdogs (+194 or longer): 2-24, a near-automatic fade

The 2024 data provides additional context: the 41-121 team produced a 79% NRFI rate, the best in MLB, driven by a historically anemic offense (.600 OPS from the leadoff spot, worst in the majors). While the 2026 offense should be modestly better, the team remains a viable NRFI candidate, particularly in Smith and Martin starts.

The sharp edge has historically lived on the run line (+1.5), not the moneyline. The White Sox reliably keep games within two runs even in losses, and the market has been slow to adjust opponent lines downward. Back the Sox +1.5 at home with Smith or Martin on the mound; fade the moneyline in extreme dog spots.

NRFI leans and game-level angles by starter

Betting summary and top plays

Win Total Verdict: Over 66.5 at DraftKings or FanDuel (-110). The Pythagorean gap, projection consensus (FanGraphs 68.6, PECOTA 69), and bullpen upgrade all favor the over. Confidence: 7 out of 10.

Team Total Tendency: Under on the road (64% hit rate in 2025 away games). Near the posted total at home, with a warm-weather over lean June through August.

Run Line Profile: Premium ATS team. The 58% cover rate from 2025 should persist with the roster’s competitive-loss profile. Back CWS +1.5 at home with SP1-SP3 on the mound.

Top 3 Season-Long Prop Plays:

• Murakami over 26.5 HR (-120, Bovada): projection consensus sits at 26-34 HR. The power is elite, and Rate Field’s LHH HR factor (1.018) provides a slight tailwind. Marginal edge, but the floor is high enough given 500-plus plate appearances.
• Montgomery under 27.5 HR (if available): full-season regression from a 48-HR pace in 71 games is inevitable. Projections center at 23-27. The under holds value unless the line drops below 24.5.
• Meidroth under 8.5 HR (-120, Bovada): a contact-and-walk profile with minimal power projection (Steamer sees 7 HR). This is a strong under.

Top 3 Situational Betting Angles:

• White Sox +1.5 at home with Smith on the mound: his 15-12 ATS record in 2025 and ace-caliber stuff make this the most reliable run line play on the board.
• Game overs in Burke road starts: his walk rate, 1.45 WHIP, and road inconsistency create high-scoring environments. Pair with YRFI.
• Smith K over (5.5 or higher) at Rate Field: 8.9 K/9, 98 mph fastball, and a home environment where he posted a 3.09 ERA in his final 10 starts. This is a bread-and-butter daily prop.

Primary Fade Situations:

• White Sox moneyline at +194 or longer (2-24 in 2025 at extreme dog prices)
• Burke starts on the road, particularly against top-5 offenses
• Any White Sox starter facing a quality LHP (lineup’s left-handed lean creates a severe platoon disadvantage)
• September road games if eliminated from contention (motivational fade)
• Fedde starts until he demonstrates 2024-level command in the regular season

Primary Back Situations:

• White Sox +1.5 run line at home with Smith or Martin starting
• Game unders in April home games (cold weather suppresses scoring)
• Game overs in June through August home games with back-end rotation
• Montgomery HR and total bases overs against RHP in warm weather at Rate Field
• Murakami K overs against starters with 96-plus mph average fastball velocity

Sharp Summary: The White Sox are a run-line-and-regression play built on a Pythagorean gap worth 11 wins, a bullpen that added a real closer, and a young lineup entering Year 2 in the weakest division in baseball. Take the over on 66.5 wins, ride the +1.5 in Smith starts, and fade the moneyline in extreme dog spots.

Frequently asked questions bettors are searching

Will the White Sox win more than 66 games in 2026? The projection systems say yes. FanGraphs (68.6 wins) and PECOTA (69 wins) both project above the market line, and the team’s 71-91 Pythagorean record in 2025 suggests the true talent level was already near 70 wins before offseason additions. The over is the lean, though rotation fragility caps the ceiling.

Is Munetaka Murakami worth betting on for AL Rookie of the Year? He is the second favorite on DraftKings behind Trey Yesavage, but the risk is substantial. His contact rate against 93-plus mph in NPB (63%) suggests MLB-caliber velocity will be a genuine adjustment. If he can maintain a .230-plus average with 30 homers, the ROY case is strong. If the strikeout rate balloons past 35%, the value evaporates. Wait for April data before committing futures money.

Are the White Sox a good NRFI bet in 2026? They remain a viable NRFI team, though less automatic than their historic 79% rate in 2024. The offense is improved but still below average, and starters like Smith, Kay, and Martin have profiles that support clean first innings. Burke and Fedde are YRFI leans. The overall team NRFI rate should land in the 55-60% range, above league average but not at 2024’s extreme level.

Should I bet the White Sox run line every game? Not blindly, but selectively. Their 58% ATS cover rate in 2025 was among the best in MLB, and the competitive-loss profile should persist. The highest-value spots are home games with Smith or Martin starting, where the Sox reliably keep games within one or two runs. Avoid run line bets in extreme dog spots (+194 or worse ML) or against premium NL opponents on the road.

When will the White Sox be good again? The front office is targeting 2027-2028 as the contention window. They won the number one overall pick in the 2026 draft (likely UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky), have six top-100 prospects per Baseball America, and expect pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith to debut during the 2026 season. The 2026 team is not built to contend, but it is built to be competitive enough to make the over interesting, and the pipeline ensures the arrow is pointing sharply upward.