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Methodology

The five MLB models, the publication contract, and how picks are graded.

The publication contract

A pick can carry the official tag only if every grading field is captured at pick time: publication_tier in top_pick or playable, a numeric market_odds, a non-empty bookmaker, a date, and (for K) a market line with line_source = "market". If any of those are missing, the pick is research-only or slate-only. This contract is enforced at the grading layer in track_outcomes.py and at the writer layer when each model produces its daily picks.

Grading

  • Picks are graded against the persisted pick-time line and odds, not closing odds, not post-game odds.
  • Pushes are recorded as pushes everywhere — record, daily summary, model pages, performance tables — never silently as wins or losses.
  • If a result row is found to be missing a grading field, it is demoted with demoted_reason rather than deleted. The public performance page rebuilds from surviving officials.
  • Demoted, research, and untracked rows are visually distinct from official rows on the public performance page.

The five core models

  • NRFI / YRFI

    XGBoost classifier trained on first-inning starter stats, lineup quality, park, weather, and umpire zone. The most mature public model on the site.

  • Strikeouts

    Pitcher K projection blending career rate, recent form, opponent strikeout-rate splits, park, and umpire zone factor. v2 with empirical bias correction (+0.40) is current.

  • Hits

    Batter 1+ hit probability driven by rolling slash lines (L5/L10/L20), career-vs-pitcher (BvP) when sample is meaningful, exit velocity (via Statcast), and handedness/lineup-spot context.

  • Home Runs

    Research model: per-PA HR probability blended with park-adjusted ISO, exit-velocity buckets (Statcast), fly-ball rate, and matchup. Calibrated; published as research, not as official picks.

  • First 5 (F5)

    XGBoost first-five-inning model using starter K-rate, hard-hit allowed, lineup quality, and park. Activates only for pitchers with sufficient historical first-five sample.

Research surfaces vs official picks

Some markets where the model is calibrated but the public-pick framing is not yet trustworthy — HR and Hits being the current examples — live as research models. Their projections, leans, and rolling performance are visible, but they do not contribute to the headline W-L record on the picks page.

Data sources

Batted-ball and exit velocity data comes from Baseball Savant (MLB's official Statcast platform). Sabermetric definitions referenced in model documentation follow the FanGraphs Library.

Where to read more