NBA cheat sheet · Reference lines

NBA Points Cheat Sheet

Thursday, November 12 · 4 games · reference line 15.5 points · data as of Nov 12, 2:31 AM ET

Tonight's summary

Tyrese Maxey leads the Thursday, November 12 points sheet, clearing 15.5 points in all of the last 10 games and 100% of 12 games this season. Anthony Davis has gone over 15.5 points in 8 straight games this season.

Top 25 of 102 players by L10 hit rate over 15.5 points, then season hit rate. Fractions are games over the line out of games in the window.
# Player L5 L10 Season Opp DvP Minutes L5 / season
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI · vs TOR · 7:00 PM ET 100% 5/5 100% 10/10 100% 12/12 — —
2 Jaylen Brown PHI · vs TOR · 7:00 PM ET 80% 4/5 90% 9/10 91% 10/11 — —
3 Anthony Davis WSH · vs DET · 7:00 PM ET 100% 5/5 90% 9/10 90% 9/10 — —
4 Cooper Flagg DAL · @ MIN · 8:00 PM ET 100% 5/5 90% 9/10 90% 9/10 — —
5 Devin Booker PHX · vs CHA · 9:00 PM ET 100% 5/5 90% 9/10 90% 9/10 — —
6 Cade Cunningham DET · @ WSH · 7:00 PM ET 80% 4/5 90% 9/10 90% 9/10 — —
7 RJ Barrett TOR · @ PHI · 7:00 PM ET 80% 4/5 80% 8/10 82% 9/11 — —
8 Duncan Robinson DET · @ WSH · 7:00 PM ET 80% 4/5 70% 7/10 70% 7/10 — —
9 Kyrie Irving DAL · @ MIN · 8:00 PM ET 80% 4/5 67% 6/9 67% 6/9 — —
10 AJ Dybantsa WSH · vs DET · 7:00 PM ET 40% 2/5 63% 5/8 63% 5/8 — —
11 Trae Young WSH · vs DET · 7:00 PM ET 60% 3/5 60% 6/10 67% 8/12 — —
12 Ayo Dosunmu MIN · vs DAL · 8:00 PM ET 100% 5/5 60% 6/10 64% 7/11 — —
13 Joel Embiid Day-To-Day PHI · vs TOR · 7:00 PM ET 60% 3/5 60% 6/10 60% 6/10 — —
14 Miles Bridges PHX · vs CHA · 9:00 PM ET 40% 2/5 60% 6/10 60% 6/10 — —
15 Kyshawn George WSH · vs DET · 7:00 PM ET 60% 3/5 60% 6/10 58% 7/12 — —
16 Immanuel Quickley TOR · @ PHI · 7:00 PM ET 40% 2/5 50% 5/10 56% 5/9 — —
17 LaMelo Ball MIN · vs DAL · 8:00 PM ET 80% 4/5 50% 5/10 55% 6/11 — —
18 Jaden McDaniels MIN · vs DAL · 8:00 PM ET 60% 3/5 50% 5/10 55% 6/11 — —
19 Naz Reid CHA · @ PHX · 9:00 PM ET 40% 2/5 50% 5/10 55% 6/11 — —
20 P.J. Washington DAL · @ MIN · 8:00 PM ET 40% 2/5 50% 5/10 46% 5/11 — —
21 Grayson Allen CHA · @ PHX · 9:00 PM ET 60% 3/5 40% 4/10 46% 5/11 — —
22 John Collins DET · @ WSH · 7:00 PM ET 40% 2/5 40% 4/10 40% 4/10 — —
23 Dillon Brooks PHX · vs CHA · 9:00 PM ET 20% 1/5 40% 4/10 40% 4/10 — —
24 LeBron James Day-To-Day PHI · vs TOR · 7:00 PM ET 20% 1/5 40% 4/10 40% 4/10 — —
25 Jonathan Kuminga MIN · vs DAL · 8:00 PM ET 60% 3/5 40% 4/10 36% 4/11 — —

102 players have at least 5 games in their last ten and 3 this season. 7 players the injury report lists as Out are left off. This build’s board data carries no player positions or minutes, so the DvP and minutes columns are blank.

How this points sheet is built

  • Reference line. Every player is measured against the same line (15.5 points). It is a fixed round number set by this site, not a market price, and no prices are shown.
  • Hit rate. The share of games the player finished over the line. L5 and L10 are the last five and ten games played and can reach back into last season; Season counts this season only. The fraction under each rate is the sample.
  • Opp DvP. Where tonight's opponent ranks among 30 teams in points allowed per game to the player's position (guard, forward or center) over the last 14 days. 1 means the opponent allows the most.
  • Minutes. Average minutes over the last five games against the season average. A change of 2 minutes or more is marked up or down.

These are historical rates for research, not predictions or picks. Full logs for every player on the slate are in NBA SlateIQ; matchup context is in DvP, RotationIQ and the injury report.