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Model performance · Calibration

Calibration

Slate: Pending

Unknown Last updated: unknown
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A reliability diagram plots the model's predicted probability against the realized hit rate for every 5-percentage-point confidence bucket. The diagonal is perfect calibration: a 60% prediction goes 60% of the time. Markers above the line are under-confident (model says 60%, reality says 70%); markers below are over-confident. Marker size scales with sample size. Verified tracking began 2026-04-12.