- Starter matchup: Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) vs Martín Pérez (Atlanta Braves).
- Lineup status: not yet posted.
- NRFI model: 53% probability, lean YRFI, -2.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Casey Mize holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Casey Mize carries a 2.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while Martín Pérez sits at 2.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Casey Mize at 10.05 K/9, Martín Pérez at 5.40 K/9.
K projections: Casey Mize at 5.4 (line 4.5)
Martín Pérez projected at 4.0 (line 3.5).
Casey Mize has a 69.2% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Martín Pérez.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) is projected for 5.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Martín Pérez (Atlanta Braves) is projected for 4.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Detroit Tigers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Atlanta Braves batters K at 22.0%, Detroit Tigers batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 52.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.9%.
- That creates a slim -2.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -122 / YRFI +100 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Alan Porter runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 31-29 (51.7%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Truist Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.02 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Highest elevation in NL East; Modern stadium; Relatively neutral dimensions.
First pitch forecast: 64F with 7 mph winds from the SSW. Humidity: 89%.
- Home plate umpire: Alan Porter.
- Career NRFI rate: 51.1% across 90 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.999 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.