- Nolan McLean carries a 2.70 ERA and 0.84 WHIP into Monday
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 2.50 ERA with 7.00 strikeouts per nine
- Bo Bichette hits .298 versus righthanders for New York
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Nolan McLean carries a 2.70 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits at 2.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Nolan McLean at 10.80 K/9, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 7.00 K/9.
K projections: Nolan McLean at 5.7 (line 5.5)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto projected at 5.4 (line 6.5).
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 68.9% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Nolan McLean.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Nolan McLean (New York Mets) is projected for 5.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 0.2 K above the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.1 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Mets lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 22.0%, New York Mets batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 48.6% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim -3.8% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- Publication tier: slate_only.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. This article will be updated with full umpire data in the game-day pass.
Our NRFI model sits at 7-14 (33.3%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
Weather forecast not available for this game.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Updated game-day morning.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.6 combined runs, with New York Mets projected for 2.6 and Los Angeles Dodgers for 2.9.
- That's 1.9 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.