- Starter matchup: Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays) vs Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 51% probability, lean YRFI, -2.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Kevin Gausman holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Kevin Gausman carries a 2.08 ERA and 0.63 WHIP, while Jacob Misiorowski sits at 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Kevin Gausman at 13.50 K/9, Jacob Misiorowski at 15.43 K/9.
K projections: Kevin Gausman at 6.0 (line 6.5)
Jacob Misiorowski projected at 5.5 (line 6.5).
Kevin Gausman has a 72.6% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Jacob Misiorowski.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays) is projected for 6.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 0.5 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 5.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.0 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Milwaukee Brewers batters K at 22.0%, Toronto Blue Jays batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 51.5% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a slim -2.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -105 at FanDuel.
- Publication tier: slate_only.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. This article will be updated with full umpire data in the game-day pass.
Our NRFI model sits at 7-14 (33.3%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- American Family Field carries a 0.98 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.06 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: 6th easiest HR but 26th in runs; Elevated position; Retractable roof.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Updated game-day morning.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with Toronto Blue Jays projected for 2.6 and Milwaukee Brewers for 2.9.
- That's 1.5 runs below the posted total of 7, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.