- Kochanowicz posts 3.24 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season
- Gil carries 6.75 ERA with 4.50 strikeouts per nine
- Aaron Judge hitting .304 against right-handed pitching
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Jack Kochanowicz holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Jack Kochanowicz carries a 3.24 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while Luis Gil sits at 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Jack Kochanowicz at 6.48 K/9, Luis Gil at 4.50 K/9.
K projections: Jack Kochanowicz at 4.1 (line 3.5)
Luis Gil projected at 4.2 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Jack Kochanowicz holds a 57.5% career NRFI rate, Luis Gil at 81.6%. Combined average: 69.6%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Jack Kochanowicz (Los Angeles Angels) is projected for 4.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Luis Gil (New York Yankees) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Los Angeles Angels lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 22.0%, Los Angeles Angels batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 40.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.1%.
- That creates a slim -14.1% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -118 / YRFI -102 at DraftKings.
- Home plate umpire Lance Barksdale runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 10-15 (40.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Los Angeles Angels K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.
- First pitch forecast: 87F with 10 mph winds from the WSW. Humidity: 38%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the WSW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Lance Barksdale.
- Career NRFI rate: 46.2% across 93 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.952 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.9 combined runs, with Los Angeles Angels projected for 2.7 and New York Yankees for 3.3.
- That's 4.6 runs below the posted total of 10.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors New York Yankees by 0.6 runs.