- Starter matchup: Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) vs Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants).
- Lineup status: not yet posted.
- NRFI model: 67% probability, lean NRFI, +57.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Tyler Glasnow holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Tyler Glasnow carries a 2.45 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, while Logan Webb sits at 4.86 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Tyler Glasnow at 10.36 K/9, Logan Webb at 7.78 K/9.
K projections: Tyler Glasnow at 5.4 (line 6.5)
Logan Webb projected at 5.2 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Tyler Glasnow holds a 86.1% career NRFI rate, Logan Webb at 71.1%. Combined average: 78.6%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. San Francisco Giants batters K at 22.0%, Los Angeles Dodgers batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 66.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 9.8%.
- That creates a strong 57.0% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +920 / YRFI -3500 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a top pick in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 20-25 (44.4%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oracle Park carries a 0.93 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: McCovey Cove in right field; Bay breezes suppress HRs; Chilly climate.
- First pitch forecast: 64F with 2 mph winds from the ENE. Humidity: 66%.
- Calm wind conditions. Minimal impact on ball flight.
- Home plate umpire: Rob Drake.
- Career NRFI rate: 59.7% across 57 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.038 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.