- Meyer carries 3.30 ERA and 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings
- Roupp posts 2.55 ERA with 0.91 WHIP for Giants
- Oracle Park features 0.93 run factor in neutral conditions
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Landen Roupp holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Max Meyer carries a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, while Landen Roupp sits at 2.55 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Max Meyer at 9.90 K/9, Landen Roupp at 9.42 K/9.
K projections: Max Meyer at 5.2 (line 4.5)
Landen Roupp projected at 5.4 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Max Meyer holds a 61.9% career NRFI rate, Landen Roupp at 70.8%. Combined average: 66.4%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
- Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
- He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 5.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Miami Marlins lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. San Francisco Giants batters K at 22.0%, Miami Marlins batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 47.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 46.3%.
- That creates a slim 1.4% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +116 / YRFI -154 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Shane Livensparger runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 28-27 (50.9%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oracle Park carries a 0.93 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: McCovey Cove in right field; Bay breezes suppress HRs; Chilly climate.
- First pitch forecast: 61F with 10 mph winds from the W. Humidity: 56%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the W may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Shane Livensparger.
- Career NRFI rate: 40.9% across 66 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.930 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.