- Cardinals have dropped four consecutive games entering Wednesday
- Mason Montgomery brings 16.68 strikeouts per nine to the mound
- Dustin May owns a 5.84 ERA through his 2025 starts
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Mason Montgomery holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Dustin May carries a 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, while Mason Montgomery sits at 3.97 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Dustin May at 7.30 K/9, Mason Montgomery at 16.68 K/9.
K projections: Dustin May at 4.6 (line 4.5)
Mason Montgomery projected at 4.9 (line 1.5).
Dustin May has a 66.1% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Mason Montgomery.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Mason Montgomery (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 4.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 1.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 22.0%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.1% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.1%.
- That creates a slim -4.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -118 / YRFI -104 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Chris Segal runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 29-29 (50.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
- First pitch forecast: 76F with 10 mph winds from the SE. Humidity: 27%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the SE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Chris Segal.
- Career NRFI rate: 51.7% across 89 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 0.998 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.