- Reds at 20-11 face Pirates at 16-16
- Singer owns 4.97 ERA, Keller at 3.18
- Projected total 5.4 runs at PNC Park
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Mitch Keller holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Brady Singer carries a 4.97 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, while Mitch Keller sits at 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Brady Singer at 5.90 K/9, Mitch Keller at 6.62 K/9.
K projections: Brady Singer at 4.1 (line 4.5)
Mitch Keller projected at 4.8 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Brady Singer holds a 71.7% career NRFI rate, Mitch Keller at 71.6%. Combined average: 71.7%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 4.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 4.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Cincinnati Reds lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 22.0%, Cincinnati Reds batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 51.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.5%.
- That creates a slim -3.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -120 / YRFI -102 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Jim Wolf runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 34-33 (50.7%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Cincinnati Reds K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
First pitch forecast: 49F with 5 mph winds from the W. Humidity: 83%.
- Home plate umpire: Jim Wolf.
- Career NRFI rate: 51.8% across 83 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.003 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.4 combined runs, with Cincinnati Reds projected for 2.7 and Pittsburgh Pirates for 2.7.
- That's 2.6 runs below the posted total of 8.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.