- Phillies have won three straight games entering Thursday
- Wheeler posts 10.80 strikeouts per nine innings this season
- Xavier Edwards hitting .312 against right-handed pitchers
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Zack Wheeler holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Zack Wheeler carries a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, while Eury Pérez sits at 4.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Zack Wheeler at 10.80 K/9, Eury Pérez at 9.48 K/9.
K projections: Zack Wheeler at 5.8 (line 6.5)
Eury Pérez projected at 4.2 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Zack Wheeler holds a 79.9% career NRFI rate, Eury Pérez at 67.1%. Combined average: 73.5%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 5.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
- Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
- He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Philadelphia Phillies lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Miami Marlins batters K at 22.0%, Philadelphia Phillies batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 59.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.1%.
- That creates a moderate 5.5% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -118 / YRFI -104 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
- Home plate umpire Mark Wegner runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 34-33 (50.7%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Miami Marlins K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- loanDepot park carries a 0.94 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.90 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme pitcher-friendly; Retractable roof; Suppresses HRs significantly.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Mark Wegner.
- Career NRFI rate: 48.7% across 78 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 1.041 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 4.8 combined runs, with Philadelphia Phillies projected for 2.5 and Miami Marlins for 2.2.
- That's 2.7 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.