- Burns holds 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across his starts
- Ashcraft matches Burns with identical 10.32 strikeout rate
- NRFI shows 56 percent probability with 3.5 percent edge
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Chase Burns holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Chase Burns carries a 2.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, while Braxton Ashcraft sits at 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Chase Burns at 10.10 K/9, Braxton Ashcraft at 9.72 K/9.
K projections: Chase Burns at 6.9 (line 6.5)
Braxton Ashcraft projected at 3.9 (line 5.5).
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 6.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Braxton Ashcraft (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 3.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.6 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.3% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 25.4%, Cincinnati Reds batters at 25.3%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 55.5% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim 3.1% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Alan Porter runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 38-38 (50.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Cincinnati Reds K vulnerability: 25.3% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates K vulnerability: 25.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
- First pitch forecast: 59F with 11 mph winds from the WSW. Humidity: 31%.
- Temperature drops from 59F at first pitch to 62F by the late innings.
- Wind advisory: 11 mph winds from the WSW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Alan Porter.
- Career NRFI rate: 51.1% across 90 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.999 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with Cincinnati Reds projected for 2.8 and Pittsburgh Pirates for 2.8.
- That's 2.0 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.