- Martín Pérez boasts a 2.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for Atlanta
- Projected total of 4.7 runs in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park
- Matt Olson leads key matchups with 18.5% barrel rate
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Martín Pérez holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Martín Pérez carries a 2.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, while Bryan Woo sits at 4.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Martín Pérez at 6.35 K/9, Bryan Woo at 7.28 K/9.
K projections: Martín Pérez at 3.9 (line 3.5)
Bryan Woo projected at 4.6 (line 5.5).
Bryan Woo has a 68.6% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Martín Pérez.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Martín Pérez (Atlanta Braves) is projected for 3.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners) is projected for 4.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.5% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Seattle Mariners lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Seattle Mariners batters K at 25.6%, Atlanta Braves batters at 23.5%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 52.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 43.9%.
- That creates a moderate 9.0% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +128 / YRFI -172 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Ryan Additon runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 42-41 (50.6%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Atlanta Braves K vulnerability: 23.5% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Seattle Mariners K vulnerability: 25.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- T-Mobile Park carries a 0.95 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.92 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Cool maritime climate; Lower wall in right field; Retractable roof.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Ryan Additon.
- Career NRFI rate: 46.7% across 92 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.000 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 4.7 combined runs, with Atlanta Braves projected for 2.4 and Seattle Mariners for 2.3.
- That's 3.3 runs below the posted total of 8, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.