- Starter matchup: Brandon Young (Baltimore Orioles) vs Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 50% probability, lean YRFI, -1.6% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Brandon Young holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Brandon Young carries a 4.30 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, while Eury Pérez sits at 4.46 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Brandon Young at 5.52 K/9, Eury Pérez at 9.66 K/9.
K projections: Brandon Young at 3.6 (line 3.5)
Eury Pérez projected at 3.7 (line 5.5).
Eury Pérez has a 67.1% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Brandon Young.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Brandon Young (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.6 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins) is projected for 3.7 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.8 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.5% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Miami Marlins batters K at 24.1%, Baltimore Orioles batters at 25.5%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.3% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.9%.
- That creates a slim -1.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -108 / YRFI -112 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Alex MacKay runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 42-41 (50.6%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 25.5% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Miami Marlins K vulnerability: 24.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- loanDepot park carries a 0.94 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.90 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme pitcher-friendly; Retractable roof; Suppresses HRs significantly.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Alex MacKay.
- Career NRFI rate: 53.7% across 82 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 1.054 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.0 combined runs, with Baltimore Orioles projected for 2.7 and Miami Marlins for 2.3.
- That's 3.5 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Baltimore Orioles by 0.4 runs.