- Starter matchup: Justin Wrobleski (Los Angeles Dodgers) vs Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 50% probability, lean YRFI, -2.6% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Justin Wrobleski holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Justin Wrobleski carries a 3.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Brady Singer sits at 5.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Justin Wrobleski at 7.53 K/9, Brady Singer at 7.31 K/9.
K projections: Justin Wrobleski at 3.8 (line 3.5)
Brady Singer projected at 3.4 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Justin Wrobleski holds a 68.2% career NRFI rate, Brady Singer at 67.1%. Combined average: 67.6%.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Justin Wrobleski (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 26.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 3.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.1 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Cincinnati Reds lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Cincinnati Reds batters K at 26.2%, Los Angeles Dodgers batters at 23.1%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 50.2% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.8%.
- That creates a slim -2.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -112 / YRFI -108 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Scott Barry runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-146 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Los Angeles Dodgers K vulnerability: 23.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Cincinnati Reds K vulnerability: 26.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Great American Ball Park carries a 1.09 run factor (hitter-friendly).
- Home run factor: 1.18 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Close outfield walls; Shallow power alleys; Ohio River nearby.
First pitch forecast: 90F with 6 mph winds from the WSW. Humidity: 53%.
- Home plate umpire: Scott Barry.
- Career NRFI rate: 85.7% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 1.091 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.7 combined runs, with Los Angeles Dodgers projected for 2.9 and Cincinnati Reds for 2.8.
- That's 3.8 runs below the posted total of 9.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.