- Starter matchup: Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) vs Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 70% probability, lean NRFI, +16.1% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Chase Burns holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Clay Holmes carries a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while Chase Burns sits at 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Clay Holmes at 6.97 K/9, Chase Burns at 10.76 K/9.
K projections: Clay Holmes at 2.8 (line 4.5)
Chase Burns projected at 4.8 (line 3.5).
First-inning scoring: Clay Holmes holds a 79.8% career NRFI rate, Chase Burns at 78.2%. Combined average: 79.0%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs) is projected for 2.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.7 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.2% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds) is projected for 4.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Cincinnati Reds lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Cincinnati Reds batters K at 27.2%, Chicago Cubs batters at 23.6%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 69.6% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a strong 16.1% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -105 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a top pick in our publication system.
- Home plate umpire Sean Barber runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-146 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Chicago Cubs K vulnerability: 23.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Cincinnati Reds K vulnerability: 27.2% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Great American Ball Park carries a 1.09 run factor (hitter-friendly).
- Home run factor: 1.18 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Close outfield walls; Shallow power alleys; Ohio River nearby.
- First pitch forecast: 80F with 9 mph winds from the N. Humidity: 71%.
- Wind advisory: 9 mph winds from the N may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Sean Barber.
- Career NRFI rate: 71.4% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Tight.
- K factor: 0.980 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.8 combined runs, with Chicago Cubs projected for 2.8 and Cincinnati Reds for 3.0.
- That's 2.7 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.