- Starter matchup: Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 52% probability, lean YRFI, -0.5% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Eduardo Rodriguez holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Gerrit Cole carries a 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Eduardo Rodriguez sits at 2.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Gerrit Cole at 9.13 K/9, Eduardo Rodriguez at 6.81 K/9.
K projections: Gerrit Cole at 3.8 (line 4.5)
Eduardo Rodriguez projected at 4.0 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Gerrit Cole holds a 80.7% career NRFI rate, Eduardo Rodriguez at 67.3%. Combined average: 74.0%.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees) is projected for 3.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.9% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks) is projected for 4.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.3% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Arizona Diamondbacks batters K at 22.9%, New York Yankees batters at 25.3%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 52.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.8%.
- That creates a slim -0.5% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -112 / YRFI -108 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Jansen Visconti runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-146 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 25.3% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Arizona Diamondbacks K vulnerability: 22.9% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Chase Field carries a 1.05 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.09 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: High desert elevation (1100ft); Retractable roof; Hot climate.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Jansen Visconti.
- Career NRFI rate: 16.7% across 6 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Wide.
- K factor: 1.014 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.8 combined runs, with New York Yankees projected for 2.9 and Arizona Diamondbacks for 2.8.
- That's 1.8 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.