- Starter matchup: Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners) vs Michael King (San Diego Padres).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 59% probability, lean NRFI, +3.9% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Bryan Woo holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Bryan Woo carries a 1.50 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, while Michael King sits at 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Bryan Woo at 8.50 K/9, Michael King at 8.10 K/9.
K projections: Bryan Woo at 5.9 (line 5.5)
Michael King projected at 4.9 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Bryan Woo holds a 68.6% career NRFI rate, Michael King at 100.0%. Combined average: 84.3%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners) is projected for 5.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 0.4 K above the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Michael King (San Diego Padres) is projected for 4.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 0.6 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Seattle Mariners lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. San Diego Padres batters K at 22.0%, Seattle Mariners batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 58.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.9%.
- That creates a slim 3.9% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -122 / YRFI +100 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. This article will be updated with full umpire data in the game-day pass.
Our NRFI model sits at 7-14 (33.3%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Petco Park carries a 0.96 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.92 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Cool San Diego weather; Low humidity suppresses HRs; Shallow right field.
- First pitch forecast: 66F with 10 mph winds from the NW. Humidity: 63%.
- Temperature drops from 66F at first pitch to 60F by the late innings.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the NW may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Updated game-day morning.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.3 combined runs, with Seattle Mariners projected for 2.7 and San Diego Padres for 2.6.
- That's 1.7 runs below the posted total of 7, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.