- Quintana projects 3.9 strikeouts against 5.5 line
- Senga owns 11.42 strikeouts per nine innings
- Citi Field park factor rates 0.92 runs
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Jose Quintana holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Jose Quintana carries a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP, while Kodai Senga sits at 8.83 ERA and 1.90 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Jose Quintana at 2.77 K/9, Kodai Senga at 11.42 K/9.
K projections: Jose Quintana at 3.9 (line 5.5)
Kodai Senga projected at 5.2 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Jose Quintana holds a 71.7% career NRFI rate, Kodai Senga at 71.1%. Combined average: 71.4%.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Jose Quintana (Colorado Rockies) is projected for 3.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.6 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Kodai Senga (New York Mets) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Colorado Rockies lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 22.0%, Colorado Rockies batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 56.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a slim 3.3% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -105 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. Umpire data will be added automatically once the assignment is posted.
Our NRFI model sits at 26-26 (50.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
First pitch forecast: 44F with 6 mph winds from the ESE. Humidity: 92%.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Umpire data will be added once the assignment is posted.
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.