- Starter matchup: Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies) vs Nolan McLean (New York Mets).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 54% probability, lean NRFI, +3.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Nolan McLean holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Aaron Nola carries a 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, while Nolan McLean sits at 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Aaron Nola at 9.20 K/9, Nolan McLean at 9.94 K/9.
K projections: Aaron Nola at 4.2 (line 5.5)
Nolan McLean projected at 4.2 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Aaron Nola holds a 72.7% career NRFI rate, Nolan McLean at 72.7%. Combined average: 72.7%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.3 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Nolan McLean (New York Mets) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.3 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 21.6% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Mets lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Mets batters K at 23.8%, Philadelphia Phillies batters at 21.6%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 53.5% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 50.5%.
- That creates a slim 3.0% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -102 / YRFI -120 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Ramon De Jesus runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-146 (52.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 21.6% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 23.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citi Field carries a 0.92 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.86 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Very deep power alleys; High walls in LCF/RCF; Inspired by old Polo Grounds.
First pitch forecast: 76F with 7 mph winds from the S. Humidity: 79%.
Home plate umpire: Ramon De Jesus.
Zone tendency: average.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.4 combined runs, with Philadelphia Phillies projected for 2.6 and New York Mets for 2.8.
- That's 3.1 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.