- Starter matchup: Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins) vs Casey Mize (San Diego Padres).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 54% probability, lean NRFI, +2.3% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Casey Mize holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Eury Pérez carries a 3.99 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, while Casey Mize sits at 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Eury Pérez at 9.67 K/9, Casey Mize at 7.75 K/9.
K projections: Eury Pérez at 3.1 (line 5.5)
Casey Mize projected at 2.8 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Eury Pérez holds a 71.0% career NRFI rate, Casey Mize at 83.9%. Combined average: 77.5%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins) is projected for 3.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 2.4 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.8% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Casey Mize (San Diego Padres) is projected for 2.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.7 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.9% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Miami Marlins lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. San Diego Padres batters K at 22.8%, Miami Marlins batters at 22.9%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 54.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.7%.
- That creates a slim 2.3% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -107 / YRFI -113 at DraftKings.
- Home plate umpire Tripp Gibson runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-148 (51.6%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Miami Marlins K vulnerability: 22.9% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
San Diego Padres K vulnerability: 22.8% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Petco Park carries a 0.96 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.92 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Cool San Diego weather; Low humidity suppresses HRs; Shallow right field.
- First pitch forecast: 75F with 7 mph winds from the WNW. Humidity: 64%.
- Temperature drops from 75F at first pitch to 69F by the late innings.
- Home plate umpire: Tripp Gibson.
- Career NRFI rate: 50.0% across 8 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.141 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.2 combined runs, with Miami Marlins projected for 2.6 and San Diego Padres for 2.5.
- That's 2.3 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.