- Starter matchup: Robert Gasser (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Trevor Rogers (Baltimore Orioles).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 53% probability, lean NRFI, +3.4% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Robert Gasser holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Robert Gasser carries a 4.01 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, while Trevor Rogers sits at 4.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Robert Gasser at 8.19 K/9, Trevor Rogers at 8.31 K/9.
K projections: Robert Gasser at 3.2 (line 5.5)
Trevor Rogers projected at 3.9 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Robert Gasser holds a 60.0% career NRFI rate, Trevor Rogers at 82.6%. Combined average: 71.3%.
Both starters throw from the L side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Robert Gasser (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 3.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 2.3 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 27.4% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Trevor Rogers (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 3.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.6 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 23.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Baltimore Orioles batters K at 27.4%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 23.1%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 52.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.5%.
- That creates a slim 3.4% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +102 / YRFI -136 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Alex MacKay runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-148 (51.6%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 23.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 27.4% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oriole Park at Camden Yards carries a 1.03 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Left field wall angles away; Narrow left field alley; Elevated field area.
- First pitch forecast: 80F with 7 mph winds from the SE. Humidity: 57%.
- Temperature drops from 80F at first pitch to 76F by the late innings.
- Home plate umpire: Alex MacKay.
- Career NRFI rate: 33.3% across 6 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.084 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.4 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.6 and Baltimore Orioles for 2.8.
- That's 2.1 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.