- Starter matchup: Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) vs Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 55% probability, lean NRFI, +5.7% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Cam Schlittler holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Cam Schlittler carries a 1.95 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, while Brandon Pfaadt sits at 3.77 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Cam Schlittler at 11.11 K/9, Brandon Pfaadt at 6.10 K/9.
K projections: Cam Schlittler at 5.4 (line 6.5)
Brandon Pfaadt projected at 3.5 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Cam Schlittler holds a 79.5% career NRFI rate, Brandon Pfaadt at 73.3%. Combined average: 76.4%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) is projected for 5.4 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection sits 1.1 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.1% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks) is projected for 3.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.0 K below the line, giving the model an Under lean.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 24.9% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Arizona Diamondbacks batters K at 24.1%, New York Yankees batters at 24.9%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 55.2% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 49.5%.
- That creates a moderate 5.7% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +102 / YRFI -122 at DraftKings.
- Home plate umpire Alex Tosi runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 158-148 (51.6%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 24.9% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Arizona Diamondbacks K vulnerability: 24.1% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Chase Field carries a 1.05 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.09 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: High desert elevation (1100ft); Retractable roof; Hot climate.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Alex Tosi.
- Career NRFI rate: 42.9% across 7 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.895 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.9 combined runs, with New York Yankees projected for 3.1 and Arizona Diamondbacks for 2.8.
- That's 1.6 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.