Simulation NRFI
ResearchFirst-inning scoring simulation using team run environments. Slate: 10/22/2026 50,000 trials per game
Research model only
Not official picks. Not included in the official public W-L record. This is an experimental first-inning simulation model under active research. The official NRFI model uses pitcher-specific features and is separate from this page.
Today's Research Picks
No research picks with positive edge for today's slate.
Selected-Pick Performance
Tracked from frozen sportsbook prices at selection time. Research model only. Not part of the public W-L record.
By Direction
By Edge Bucket
Calibration Tracking
Brier Score
0.2479
Log Loss
0.6889
ECE
0.0147
Calibration measures how well the model's predicted probabilities match actual outcomes. A perfectly calibrated model would have games predicted at 70% NRFI happening exactly 70% of the time. Lower Brier scores, log loss, and ECE indicate better calibration. This is a research model and is not used for official picks.
| Bucket | Count | Avg Predicted | Actual Rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.10-0.20 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.20-0.30 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.30-0.40 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.40-0.50 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.50-0.60 | 860 | 55.7% | 54.3% | 1.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 54 | 61.3% | 59.3% | 2.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.80-0.90 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 0.90-1.00 | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
By Direction
YRFI
909 graded Brier: 0.2479
NRFI
5 graded
Methodology
The Simulation NRFI model estimates first-inning scoring probability by simulating the first half-inning for each team. It derives per-inning run rates from the Game Market Core run distribution (F5 expected runs / 5 innings), applies a 10% first-inning scoring boost (historically, first innings score about 10% higher than average), and runs 50,000 trials using a negative binomial distribution with dispersion k=1.1.
P(NRFI) = fraction of trials where both teams score zero runs in the simulated first inning. P(YRFI) = 1 - P(NRFI).
This approach is intentionally different from the official NRFI model, which uses pitcher-specific first-inning features: career NRFI rate, first-inning ERA, K rate, BB rate, WHIP, and whiff rate. The simulation model captures the team-level run environment but does not see individual pitcher first-inning tendencies.
Research picks are selected where the simulation probability shows positive edge (2%+) against the sportsbook implied probability. All picks are tracked with frozen sportsbook prices from the time of selection.