Early Beta · Research Model
Game Markets Research Models
Poisson-compound engine projecting win, spread, and total probabilities across 7 market types per game. Shadow-tracked for performance evaluation. Not official picks.
Game Markets data is temporarily unavailable
Research artifacts are refreshing. Market family pages are still accessible below.
This is an early beta research model. Not official picks.
How to Read These Pages
Model ProbEstimated probability from Poisson-compound simulation.
Implied ProbNo-vig break-even rate from the sportsbook's American odds.
EdgeModel probability minus implied. Positive means the model sees value.
Frozen OddsSportsbook prices captured at model generation time. May not reflect current lines.
Research PickHighest-edge candidate per market per game. Selected by model, not by humans.
Bullpen IQUse Bullpen IQ to understand full-game vs F5 late-inning risk from fatigued bullpens.
Candidate AuditAll sides tracked for calibration. ~50% win rate by design (both sides counted).