Research Model
Home Run Research
This is a research model — HR picks are not included in the official picks feed. HR props are priced +350 to +600 and are difficult to model at scale. This board surfaces per-batter power probability using barrel rates, exit velocity, and park-adjusted HR likelihood as a research and exploration tool. Whether any tier is +EV depends on the price your book is offering. See the performance page for tier accuracy data.
Today's HR picks aren't ready yet
The model is waiting on confirmed lineups and park conditions before scoring today's power hitter matchups.
Picks typically arrive by late morning ET once lineups are posted.
Research Performance
Research onlyBacktested across 73 slates (2026-04-10 through 2026-09-23). 833 home runs on 6868 graded batter-rows. Overall rate: 12.1%. This model is not part of the official public W/L record.
HR rate by probability bucket
Higher buckets should produce higher realized rates. Small-sample buckets are noisy.
| Bucket | Picks | HR | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 1162 | 81 | 7.0% |
| 5-9 | 2187 | 210 | 9.6% |
| 10-14 | 2612 | 398 | 15.2% |
| 15-19 | 779 | 126 | 16.2% |
| 20+ | 128 | 18 | 14.1% |
HR rate by slate rank
Top-N per slate. For shopping longshot and value plays, including SGP HR anchors.
| Rank | Slates | Picks | HR | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 3 | 56 | 154 | 27 | 17.5% |
| Top 5 | 57 | 257 | 41 | 16.0% |
| Top 10 | 62 | 518 | 80 | 15.4% |
| Top 20 | 70 | 1044 | 169 | 16.2% |
Odds-based edge (19 priced picks)
Flat-unit ROI among picks with saved bookmaker odds. Directional only at these sample sizes.
| Bucket | Picks | Wins | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 4 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 5-9 | 5 | 1 | +100.0% |
| 10-14 | 2 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 15-19 | 7 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 20+ | 1 | 0 | -100.0% |
- Research model. Not included in the official public pick record.
- Useful for longshot / value discovery at the top of the slate.
- ROI estimates require market odds and rely on modest priced samples; treat them as directional, not as a verified edge.
- 'At least one HR from top N' is the slate-level hit rate for the top N ranked batters; useful for shopping SGP anchors.
Summary generated 2026-09-24T07:13:48Z. Deterministic, offline, no paid APIs.