- Imanaga brings 2.17 ERA and 9.93 strikeouts per nine to the mound
- Wrobleski counters with 1.88 ERA for the Dodgers
- Cubs enter 17-10 while Dodgers sit at 18-9 in standings
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Justin Wrobleski holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Shota Imanaga carries a 3.15 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, while Justin Wrobleski sits at 1.50 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Shota Imanaga at 9.96 K/9, Justin Wrobleski at 4.50 K/9.
K projections: Shota Imanaga at 5.3 (line 4.5)
Justin Wrobleski projected at 4.2 (line 3.5).
Shota Imanaga has a 69.8% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Justin Wrobleski.
Both starters throw from the L side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs) is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Justin Wrobleski (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Chicago Cubs lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 22.0%, Chicago Cubs batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 46.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 56.5%.
- That creates a slim -10.1% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -130 / YRFI -102 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Malachi Moore runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 28-27 (50.9%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
Weather forecast not available for this game.
- Home plate umpire: Malachi Moore.
- Career NRFI rate: 38.6% across 88 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.016 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.