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Cheat sheet · HR

Today's HR Spots

Slate: Today (2026-09-21)

Fresh Updated 9 minutes ago

Highest-probability HR spots given park, weather, opponent pitcher and batter form.

Research model · Total picks scored: 10 · Full model → Methodology →
  1. 1

    Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    Signal

    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

    Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6:35 PM ET

    13.8%
    +3.4pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 1.02 vs: Shane Baz Confidence: Very Strong
    Market line: 0.5 · BetRivers
  2. 2

    George Springer

    Signal

    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

    Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6:35 PM ET

    13.8%
    +3.0pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 1.02 vs: Shane Baz Confidence: Very Strong
    Market line: 0.5 · BetRivers
  3. 3

    Spencer Torkelson

    Signal

    Detroit Tigers vs Washington Nationals

    Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers · Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET

    13.8%
    +2.5pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 0.90 vs: DJ Herz Confidence: Very Strong
    Market line: 0.5 · BetRivers
  4. 4

    Davis Schneider

    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

    Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6:35 PM ET

    13.8%
    +3.2pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 1.02 vs: Shane Baz Confidence: Very Strong
  5. 5

    Eduardo Valencia

    Detroit Tigers vs Washington Nationals

    Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers · Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET

    13.8%
    +2.7pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 0.90 vs: DJ Herz Confidence: Very Strong
  6. 6

    Brandon Valenzuela

    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

    Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6:35 PM ET

    13.8%
    +2.5pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 1.02 vs: Shane Baz Confidence: Very Strong
  7. 7

    Victor Bericoto

    San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins

    Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants · Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET

    13.8%
    +2.1pp edge
    Very Strong
    Park HR factor: 0.91 vs: Zebby Matthews Confidence: Very Strong
  8. 8

    Riley Greene

    Detroit Tigers vs Washington Nationals

    Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers · Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET

    13.8%
    +2.0pp edge
    Strong
    Park HR factor: 0.90 vs: DJ Herz Confidence: Strong
    Market line: 0.5 · BetRivers
  9. 9

    Shay Whitcomb

    San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins

    Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants · Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET

    13.8%
    +1.8pp edge
    Strong
    Park HR factor: 0.91 vs: Zebby Matthews Confidence: Strong
    Market line: 0.5 · BetRivers
  10. 10

    Kazuma Okamoto

    Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles

    Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 6:35 PM ET

    13.8%
    +1.5pp edge
    Strong
    Park HR factor: 1.02 vs: Shane Baz Confidence: Strong
    Market line: 0.5 · BetRivers