- Starter matchup: Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals) vs Chris Paddack (Miami Marlins).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 44% probability, lean YRFI, -10.2% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Chris Paddack holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Dustin May carries a 6.98 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, while Chris Paddack sits at 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Dustin May at 6.98 K/9, Chris Paddack at 8.38 K/9.
K projections: Dustin May at 4.5 (line 4.5)
Chris Paddack projected at 4.5 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Dustin May holds a 66.1% career NRFI rate, Chris Paddack at 62.3%. Combined average: 64.2%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Chris Paddack (Miami Marlins) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Miami Marlins batters K at 22.0%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 44.4% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.5%.
- That creates a slim -10.2% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -120 / YRFI -102 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 17-23 (42.5%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- loanDepot park carries a 0.94 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.90 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme pitcher-friendly; Retractable roof; Suppresses HRs significantly.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Manny Gonzalez.
- Career NRFI rate: 53.6% across 84 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.948 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 2.3 combined runs, with St. Louis Cardinals projected for 2.3 and Miami Marlins for 0.0.
- That's 6.2 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors St. Louis Cardinals by 2.3 runs.