YRFI MODEL
YRFI Picks
YRFI picks surface games where first-inning scoring is most likely — driven by pitcher ERA in the first inning, lineup depth, tight umpire zones, and park run factors. Updated daily before first pitch.
What YRFI means and when the model flags it
YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) wins when either team scores at least one run before the end of the first inning. Roughly 40–45% of MLB games see first-inning scoring, so the base rate is already against YRFI — which means the model only surfaces it when multiple factors stack.
The strongest YRFI signal is a starter with a high first-inning ERA or walk rate — pitchers who give up damage before settling in.
Tight-zone umpires create more walks and traffic in early innings. High run-factor parks amplify any scoring pressure that builds.
Lineups stacked with high-OBP hitters pressure a shaky opener. Warm weather at open-air parks can add extra carry on fly balls.
No YRFI Picks Yet
Today's YRFI picks haven't been generated yet. Check back after lineups post — usually by early afternoon ET.