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Public release log

Changelog

New tools, model updates, and product changes shipped to TheCapper.io.

Last updated 2026-07-03

2026-07-03

  • [Bug fix] Batter vs Pitcher tool now shows the right day year-round. The Batter vs Pitcher matchup tool resolved its "today / tomorrow / day-after" slate using a fixed offset that is only correct during daylight-saving months. From November through March it could land on the wrong calendar day near midnight Eastern. The tool now converts to Eastern time properly all year, so the slate you see always matches the correct day.

2026-06-26

  • [Bug fix] Today's MLB game previews are back. For about a week the "Today's MLB Games" previews page could show "Previews not yet available" even on full game days. Daily previews are generating and publishing again — every game on the slate now has its projected lineups, probable pitchers, model signals, weather, and ballpark context. We also added an automatic morning check that flags us right away if the previews page ever goes empty on a day with games scheduled, so it can't quietly stay blank again.

2026-06-06

  • [UI improvement] MLB game previews are now substantially longer and more analytical. Preview articles were running 100-550 words short of the target 1,800-2,200 word range. The written analysis sections (the opening narrative and the bottom-line betting takeaway) have been expanded: the lede now targets 350-400 words of connected analytical prose, and the bottom line targets 120-150 words synthesizing the key betting angle. Articles generating from tomorrow's slate should land in the 1,800+ word range.
  • [UI improvement] Contact page added. There is now a dedicated Contact page at /contact/ with direct email addresses, operator identity, and response expectations. Linked from the footer under both Trust and Legal sections.
  • [UI improvement] Terms of Service, Privacy Policy, and About pages significantly expanded. Each has been rewritten to be more specific to how the site actually works — the Terms now includes an explicit AI content disclosure section, detailed responsible gambling language, and a full liability section. The Privacy Policy adds a plain-language cookie table, a data retention schedule, and structured GDPR/CCPA rights. The About page now names the operator, walks through the five-step research pipeline, and distinguishes AI-assisted editorial writing from the site's deterministic statistical models.
  • [Feature] Player pages now show Statcast quality metrics. Batter profiles now display xwOBA, Chase Rate, and Zone Contact Rate from the current season's Statcast data when available. These sit below the existing splits card and give a clearer picture of a batter's true contact quality and plate discipline -- even when the player isn't in today's slate.
  • [Feature] Team pages now show a Bullpen card. Each MLB team page now includes a Bullpen section with fatigue score, quality score, risk score, projected starter innings, high-usage arms, and likely-unavailable relievers -- updated each intraday pipeline run.
  • [Bug fix] WNBA game previews could stay stuck on a placeholder. If a preview was first created while its written analysis was temporarily unavailable, it saved a "check back shortly" placeholder — and later refreshes kept showing that placeholder even once the full preview could be written. Previews now detect an empty placeholder and regenerate the real analysis on the next refresh, so a WNBA matchup no longer stays stuck on placeholder text.

2026-06-05

  • [UI improvement] More hit picks now flagged as signals in the Research Picks section. The Hits model's strongest research plays (the "playable" band) are now badged as signals on the picks page, instead of only the rare top-tier play. Hits remain research-only and are not part of the official win/loss record. This surfaces where the model's edge actually is while the model continues its evaluation soak.
  • [Bug fix] Hit picks briefly went unavailable midday. A data file the Hits model reads was caught mid-update and the model failed to load for two refresh cycles. The model now keeps a last-known-good copy and falls back to it instead of going blank, so a mid-update read can no longer take hit picks offline.

2026-05-13

  • [Bug fix] Three model databases were going stale with no automated refresh. The HR batter database was 52 days old, the hits batter database was 10 days old, and the NRFI pitcher database was going 87+ hours stale mid-week between Sunday rebuilds. All three now refresh automatically every day at 9am UTC as part of the daily database rebuild. A new NRFI pitcher refresh script was added that reads local data only (no external API calls), expanding the pitcher database from 72 to 143 entries on its first run.
  • [Feature] Statcast analytics depth expanded significantly. The internal Statcast data pipeline now captures 61 fields per pitch (up from 10). New pitcher metrics include CSW rate (called strike + whiff rate — the strongest K predictor in published research), true swinging-strike rate, first-pitch strike percentage, full pitch-type breakdowns (velocity, spin, whiff rate, CSW rate per pitch type), and strikeout rate by times through the order. New batter metrics include spray direction (pull/center/oppo from hit coordinate data), platoon splits vs lefties and righties (K%, BB%, xwOBA), xSLG, actual wOBA, and average bat speed and swing length for 2025–2026. These richer signals are now available to the K overs shadow model and future model work.
  • [Bug fix] Statcast data was silently stale for weeks with no alert. An incorrect file path in the nightly Statcast collection cron meant the job had been failing silently since early May. The path is now corrected. The daily schema audit that runs at 9:30am ET now also verifies freshness on all seven model-critical data files (Statcast pitchers, Statcast batters, and five model databases) and will fire a Discord alert if any file is more than 26 hours old.
  • [Feature] K Overs shadow model now running in research mode. A new internal XGBoost model runs alongside the main strikeout model, focused exclusively on Over edges for pitchers with a market line of 5.5 or higher. The model is trained on 2026 season starts where a real betting market line was posted (not projection defaults), and publishes research-tier picks that are tracked internally but not included in the official W/L record. This is a parallel data-collection track — the goal is to accumulate graded starts through the season and promote it only once the sample size is sufficient for reliable evaluation.

2026-05-12

  • Strikeout model: Over picks are no longer being silently suppressed. Internal fix to the K model. The projection-vs-line gap required to declare an Over or Under lean was set too wide (1.5 K), and combined with a small structural negative shift in the fallback projection path, the result was that on most slates zero Over leans surfaced regardless of the matchup. Threshold tightened to 1.0 K; the fallback shift was halved. Win-rate thresholds for tier assignment unchanged. Today's slate immediately produced an Over lean (Will Warren vs his projected K count) that the old threshold would have buried as Neutral.
  • Tighter quality controls on the pick log AND the graded outcomes record. Internal change: every pick written to our public pick ledger AND every graded outcome row now passes a strict shape check before it's allowed in. The check runs again at read time as a safety net. This closes the largest single source of past bugs (where a pick could appear in one place on the site but be invisible to the W/L counter) without changing what shows up on the picks page or the performance page.
  • Alerting when the K model falls back to the older projection path. Internal safeguard: if the production XGBoost K model fails to load for any reason, every pitcher gets projected by the older composite formula. That fallback is the documented mechanism behind a historical Over/Under imbalance bug. The pipeline now sends one Discord warning per day if any pitcher hits the fallback path, so a silent regression can't slip past.
  • [SEO] Better crawl coverage and breadcrumb markup on key pages. RotationIQ is now indexable and included in the sitemap. The old /mlb/models/hit-rate-iq/ path now redirects to the live SlateIQ tool URL. Home, MLB hub, Picks, Performance, Standings, SlateIQ, Umpires, and WNBA hub/tool pages now publish breadcrumb structured data for richer search presentation.
  • [Bug fix] Performance page was showing "0 official picks graded." A schema mismatch between the performance data builder and the page caused all pick counts to read as zero, triggering an amber "limited data" notice even though graded picks existed. Fixed — the page now correctly reads 50+ graded picks and displays accurate win rate and model breakdowns. A schema mismatch between the performance data builder and the page caused all pick counts to read as zero, triggering an amber "limited data" notice even though graded picks existed. Fixed — the page now correctly reads 50+ graded picks and displays accurate win rate and model breakdowns.

2026-05-11

  • [Feature] YRFI model page. There's now a dedicated page for Yes Run First Inning picks at /mlb/models/yrfi/. Same model that powers NRFI, now with the YRFI side surfaced on its own — filterable by date, with methodology notes and historical framing.
  • [UI improvement] Sharper ballpark pages. Great American Ball Park, Nationals Park, and Rogers Centre pages updated with more specific park-factor framing — HR index, run-scoring context, and how each environment tends to shape game totals.
  • [Feature] The homepage now shows what the models actually run. A new stats block in the hero shows the volume of data and model work behind every slate — data points ingested, model simulations run, and picks graded over the season. Numbers count up as you scroll in.
  • [Feature] WNBA game previews are live. Pre-game research articles for WNBA matchups now generate automatically and are accessible from the WNBA hub. Same format as MLB previews.
  • [Bug fix] RBI hit rates were showing 0% across the board. A bug in the game-log collector meant RBI totals were never recorded, so every player's RBI market showed 0% across L5, L10, and season. The underlying data is corrected; hit rates now reflect actual RBI history. Prior seasons will backfill overnight.
  • [Bug fix] Five SlateIQ display bugs fixed on WNBA. Player log detail pages now load correctly. The "no log data" empty state shows properly when it applies. Team labels in the matchup header no longer go blank. Book counts were showing 0 even when odds existed — fixed. Filter result counts were miscounted — fixed.
  • [Bug fix] Preview and recap article images were being cropped. Hero images on game preview and recap pages were cut off at the top and bottom. They now display at their native 1200×630 aspect ratio.
  • [Performance] Performance page now loads instantly. The /mlb/performance/ page was processing a large dataset on every request, causing slow or failed loads. The data is now pre-computed during nightly grading and served as a small pre-built file. Same numbers, much faster.
  • [Bug fix] Game market odds are now always anchored to before first pitch. An edge case in how odds snapshots were recorded for the Game Market Core model meant some entries could reference prices from after a game started. Those snapshots are now always capped to the pre-game window — what you see on game market pages reflects what was actually available at research time.

2026-05-10

  • New navigation. The site nav is rebuilt. SlateIQ now has its own top-level button. MLB and WNBA each have a full dropdown with three sections — Today's slate, tools, and research. Performance has its own dropdown with sub-pages. Home button added. On mobile, each sport section is collapsible so the menu stays usable on a phone.
  • New homepage. The homepage now leads with the season record and opens directly into today's slate — no hero marketing section. MLB and WNBA sport cards show live game counts and route you straight to the right tool. The SlateIQ feature block, article feed, CapperU intro, and a trust section complete the stack.
  • Article entity linking. Player names, team names, ballparks, and umpires in game preview and recap articles are now automatically linked to their profile pages on first mention. Click a name in an article to jump straight to the stats.
  • Better connections across the site. The CapperU education hub now shows all published articles. Every CapperU article has a "Put it to use" section linking to the relevant tools and models. Model pages link directly to their cheat sheets. Cheat sheets link back to their model pages. Umpire profile pages now cross-link to NRFI research.
  • Expanded footer. The site footer is rebuilt with six full columns — MLB tools, WNBA tools, CapperU articles, data transparency links, and legal.
  • External data source citations added. The data sources and methodology pages now include proper credits and links to MLB StatsAPI, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs Library.

2026-05-09

  • WNBA props are live. Hit-rate research, line shopping, and prop tables for points, rebounds, assists, threes, and points+rebounds+assists across every WNBA game on the slate.
  • The board is now called SlateIQ. Same tool, broader name — covers MLB and WNBA from one page. Hit Rate IQ links still work and redirect.
  • Multi-sport navigation. Top nav now has MLB and WNBA dropdowns. Switch between sports with one tap from anywhere on the site.
  • Sport switcher inside the SlateIQ tool. A small MLB/WNBA toggle appears at the top of the board so you can flip between sports without leaving the page.
  • New WNBA hub page at /wnba/ with the SlateIQ link, scores, standings, schedule, and the new research tools all in one spot.
  • WNBA scores, live ticker, and per-game pages are live. Open the WNBA hub for today's slate, drop into the live ticker for in-progress games (auto-refreshes), or click any game for the full box score with quarter-by-quarter scoring, leaders, and player stats.
  • WNBA standings and schedule pages are live. Conference standings with win percentages, games back, recent form, and streaks. Schedule covers today plus the next seven days with tip-off times and venues.
  • MLB standings and schedule pages are live. Six division tables with W-L, GB, last 10, and run differential. Schedule shows the next seven days with probable pitchers.
  • Sharper edge math on every prop and pick. When the sharpest available pricing is posted on a market, our fair-odds calculation now uses it as the anchor instead of retail-book averages. The result: tighter, more honest expected-value numbers on every Hit Rate IQ row, pick card, and EV+ breakdown.
  • Closing-line value tracking for graded picks. Every pick that has settled now gets compared against the line at game-start to show whether you'd have beaten the close. Surfaces in the accuracy tracker over the next few days as more picks grade.
  • WNBA RotationIQ — early-look lineup tool. A research view at /wnba/tools/rotation/ showing each team's projected starters, minute ranges by player, a closing-five projection, and a rotation-stability score. Honest about its early-season limitations on the page itself; signal sharpens as games accumulate.
  • WNBA Role Change Monitor. A research view at /wnba/tools/role-changes/ flagging players whose last game suggested a meaningful expansion or reduction in role versus their recent baseline. Useful when minutes shift faster than the prop market reacts.
  • WNBA player profile pages. Per-player season stats, recent game logs, hit rates by market, and today's prop projections at /wnba/players/<player>/. Browse all active players at /wnba/players/. Click any player on the SlateIQ board to open their profile.
  • SlateIQ row click works on WNBA. Click any row to open a per-prop detail page with hit-rate breakdown at the line, recent game logs filtered to the market, line-movement timeline, and EV+ inspector — same as the MLB experience.

2026-05-08

  • Line history and best-book pricing now show on Hit Rate IQ player rows and on every pick card. Click into any prop or pick to see how the line has moved across books over the past few hours and which book has the best price right now. Previously this was only on the Props Board.
  • Expected value breakdown now shows on Hit Rate IQ rows and pick cards too. Open any prop or pick and tap Show EV breakdown to see the fair odds (after the bookmaker margin is removed), how that compares to our model probability, and a recommended Kelly stake size. Same numbers the Props Board has been showing.
  • Late-evening games now show line history and EV breakdown on every page they appear. A handful of evening matchups were silently empty before today; that's fixed.

2026-05-07

  • Cleaner URLs across game previews, season previews, and recaps. Old links still work — they redirect to the new ones automatically.
  • Refreshed page titles across the site so they match what people actually search for. Better visibility on Google, more useful at a glance.
  • Mobile layout fixes for the props board, player pages, team rosters, and education articles. Stuff renders properly on phones now.
  • Strikeout (K) picks on the picks board now show the same details as the other picks — game time, locked-in price, and how the line has moved since.

2026-05-06

  • New accuracy tracker at /mlb/performance/accuracy/ showing per-model win rate, Brier score, log loss, and ROI plus a confidence-bucket breakdown.
  • New calibration page at /mlb/performance/calibration/ with reliability diagrams for every model.
  • Player pages now carry a "Recent news" strip with MLB transactions, recalls, options, IL movements, trades, and releases pulled daily from the official MLB StatsAPI.
  • Team pages now include a 30-day batting-order depth chart showing the most-frequent occupant of each lineup slot with alternates.
  • Prop cards on the Props Board now show line history and best price across books in the expanded view.
  • New EV+ breakdown on every prop card: market-implied vs devigged fair odds (multiplicative + Shin), our model's edge, and ¼ / ½ Kelly recommended stake. Includes responsible-gambling messaging.

2026-05-05

  • New trust-and-transparency surface: a public changelog, per-model methodology pages at /mlb/models/{model}/methodology/, and a plain-English data-sources page.
  • New daily cheat sheets at /mlb/cheat-sheets/ ranking the top hit, home-run, strikeout, and NRFI edges of the slate.
  • Every board page now shows a freshness chip and a stale-data warning when a slate hasn't refreshed in time.
  • Uniform hit-rate windows (L5 / L10 / L20 / Season + vs LHP / RHP) on Hit Rate IQ and the Props Board.
  • Fixed a player-page bug where the L10, L20, and season slash lines collapsed to the same numbers for hitters with more than eight games on file.
  • Cheat sheets no longer surface TBD-pitcher rows or Neutral leans with no measurable edge — empty pre-lineup slates now say so honestly.
  • Updated home-run model with refreshed 2026 batter data.

2026-05-04

  • Fixed an issue where hit picks could come up empty on early-morning slates before lineups confirmed.

2026-04-19

  • Simulation NRFI research model is now public at /mlb/models/nrfi-yrfi/simulation/, with calibration tracking visible on the page.
  • Bullpen IQ research tool launched.
  • Pregame odds freeze — picks are now graded against the exact price the model saw at publish time, not whatever the line moves to later.
  • Pick labels and table layout cleaned up across the model hub.

2026-04-18

  • Game Markets (run lines, totals, moneylines) get dedicated research pages.
  • Model Hub redesign with cleaner per-model summaries.

2026-04-14

  • Automated post-game recaps now publish through the daily preview pipeline.
  • Smart preview refresh — articles re-fire automatically when underlying matchup facts materially change.
  • Preview articles now include a Key Matchups section.

2026-04-12

  • Performance page transparency pass — every public W-L row links back to the pick-time price, book, and timestamp.
  • Hub summaries now have explicit freshness gates so stale data can't quietly leak through.

2026-04-11

  • Preview article experience upgrade — server-rendered body, proper images, OG tags, and better discovery from Hit Rate IQ.
  • Every official pick now ships with verifiable odds provenance (price, book, snapshot time at publish).

2026-04-10

  • Full-model provability audit and publication contract lockdown — only picks with captured pick-time market evidence count toward the official W-L record.
  • Canonical game preview and recap articles launched.