- Paddack carries 6.38 ERA and 1.54 WHIP into Tuesday start
- Yamamoto posts 2.48 ERA with 0.89 WHIP for Dodgers
- Miami on two-game losing streak facing Los Angeles two-game winners
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Chris Paddack carries a 6.38 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits at 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Chris Paddack at 9.38 K/9, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 7.71 K/9.
K projections: Chris Paddack at 4.9 (line 4.5)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto projected at 5.1 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Chris Paddack holds a 62.3% career NRFI rate, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at 68.9%. Combined average: 65.6%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Chris Paddack (Miami Marlins) is projected for 4.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Miami Marlins lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 22.0%, Miami Marlins batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 44.5% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 50.5%.
- That creates a slim -6.0% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -102 / YRFI -120 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Tripp Gibson runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 29-29 (50.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are unavailable as of this writing.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
Weather forecast not available for this game.
- Home plate umpire: Tripp Gibson.
- Career NRFI rate: 52.4% across 84 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.982 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
Run projections not available for this game.