- Starter matchup: Luis Severino (Athletics) vs Will Warren (New York Yankees).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 57% probability, lean NRFI, +4.0% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Will Warren holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Luis Severino carries a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, while Will Warren sits at 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Luis Severino at 10.80 K/9, Will Warren at 8.10 K/9.
K projections: Luis Severino at 4.8 (line 4.5)
Will Warren projected at 4.0 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Luis Severino holds a 75.4% career NRFI rate, Will Warren at 79.0%. Combined average: 77.2%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Luis Severino (Athletics) is projected for 4.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 0.3 K above the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.1% with a 26.6% whiff rate.
Will Warren (New York Yankees) is projected for 4.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 1.5 K below the line, giving the model a Under lean at 8/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 53%.
He faces a low-K lineup that strikes out at 15.6% with a 22.6% whiff rate.
The New York Yankees lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 22.1%, Athletics batters at 15.6%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 56.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.8%.
- That creates a slim 4.0% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -112 / YRFI -108 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
- Home plate umpire Carlos Torres runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 12-11 (52.2%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 15.6% strikeout rate, 22.6% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.1% strikeout rate, 26.6% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.
- First pitch forecast: 41F with 9 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 49%.
- Wind advisory: 9 mph winds from the SSE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Carlos Torres.
- Career NRFI rate: 52.2% across 90 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.956 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 6.5 combined runs, with Athletics projected for 3.1 and New York Yankees for 3.4.
- That's 1.5 runs below the posted total of 8.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors New York Yankees by 0.3 runs.