- Starter matchup: Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants) vs Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 58% probability, lean NRFI, +5.3% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Shane Baz holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Landen Roupp carries a 4.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Shane Baz sits at 4.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Landen Roupp at 11.81 K/9, Shane Baz at 7.36 K/9.
K projections: Landen Roupp at 5.1 (line 5.5)
Shane Baz projected at 4.9 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Landen Roupp holds a 70.8% career NRFI rate, Shane Baz at 73.7%. Combined average: 72.3%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Landen Roupp (San Francisco Giants) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 0.4 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 4.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection sits 0.6 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The San Francisco Giants lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Baltimore Orioles batters K at 22.0%, San Francisco Giants batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 57.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a moderate 5.3% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a playable in our publication system.
The home plate umpire for this game has not yet been assigned. MLB typically posts assignments the morning of game day. This article will be updated with full umpire data in the game-day pass.
Our NRFI model sits at 12-12 (50.0%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oriole Park at Camden Yards carries a 1.03 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Left field wall angles away; Narrow left field alley; Elevated field area.
- First pitch forecast: 66F with 8 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 42%.
- Wind advisory: 8 mph winds from the SSE may impact fly balls.
Home plate umpire: Not yet assigned. Updated game-day morning.
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.3 combined runs, with San Francisco Giants projected for 2.6 and Baltimore Orioles for 2.8.
- That's 3.2 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.