- Suarez posts 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in early-season struggles
- Cardinals riding at 8-5
- Low 5.3-run total reflects both starters' elevated WHIPs
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Kyle Leahy holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Ranger Suarez carries a 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP, while Kyle Leahy sits at 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Ranger Suarez at 5.40 K/9, Kyle Leahy at 4.50 K/9.
K projections: Ranger Suarez at 4.0 (line 4.5)
Kyle Leahy projected at 2.9 (line 4.5).
Ranger Suarez has a 81.7% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Kyle Leahy.
This is a LHP vs RHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Ranger Suarez (Boston Red Sox) is projected for 4.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 0.5 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a low-K lineup that strikes out at 16.0% with a 23.6% whiff rate.
Kyle Leahy (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 2.9 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 1.6 K below the line, giving the model a Under lean at 4/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 41%.
He faces a high-K lineup that strikes out at 25.9% with a 28.5% whiff rate.
The Boston Red Sox lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. St. Louis Cardinals batters K at 16.0%, Boston Red Sox batters at 25.9%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 55.6% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.5%.
- That creates a slim 1.1% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -120 / YRFI -102 at FanDuel.
- Publication tier: slate_only.
- Home plate umpire Brian Walsh runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 4-8 (33.3%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 25.9% strikeout rate, 28.5% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 16.0% strikeout rate, 23.6% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Busch Stadium carries a 1.01 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.04 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Retractable roof; Relatively neutral dimensions; Gateway Arch viewable from stadium.
- Roof: Retractable.
First pitch forecast: 71F with 7 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 64%.
- Home plate umpire: Brian Walsh.
- Career NRFI rate: 51.9% across 79 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.031 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.3 combined runs, with Boston Red Sox projected for 2.7 and St. Louis Cardinals for 2.7.
- That's 2.2 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.