- Peterson carries 6.14 ERA and 1.84 WHIP into Dodger Stadium
- Wrobleski posts 4.00 ERA with 4.00 strikeouts per nine
- NRFI shows 59% probability with 8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Justin Wrobleski holds the ERA edge in this matchup. David Peterson carries a 6.14 ERA and 1.84 WHIP, while Justin Wrobleski sits at 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: David Peterson at 8.59 K/9, Justin Wrobleski at 4.00 K/9.
K projections: David Peterson at 4.3 (line 4.5)
Justin Wrobleski projected at 4.2 (line 3.5).
David Peterson has a 82.8% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Justin Wrobleski.
Both starters throw from the L side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
David Peterson (New York Mets) is projected for 4.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection sits 0.2 K below the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 5/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Justin Wrobleski (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection sits 0.7 K above the line, giving the model a Neutral lean at 4/10 confidence.
Win probability on this lean: 50%.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Mets lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Los Angeles Dodgers batters K at 22.0%, New York Mets batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 53.9% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.3%.
- That creates a slim 0.7% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -114 / YRFI -106 at FanDuel.
- Publication tier: slate_only.
- Home plate umpire Nic Lentz runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 7-11 (38.9%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Lineup K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
Park factor data not available for UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
Weather forecast not available for this game.
- Home plate umpire: Nic Lentz.
- Career NRFI rate: 52.8% across 91 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.973 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with New York Mets projected for 2.7 and Los Angeles Dodgers for 2.8.
- That's 3.0 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.