- Starter matchup: Grant Holmes (Atlanta Braves) vs Andrew Painter (Philadelphia Phillies).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 54% probability, lean NRFI, +0.8% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Grant Holmes holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Grant Holmes carries a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Andrew Painter sits at 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Grant Holmes at 7.06 K/9, Andrew Painter at 10.05 K/9.
K projections: Grant Holmes at 5.0 (line 5.5)
Andrew Painter projected at 5.1 (line 4.5).
Grant Holmes has a 82.6% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Andrew Painter.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Grant Holmes (Atlanta Braves) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Andrew Painter (Philadelphia Phillies) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Atlanta Braves lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Philadelphia Phillies batters K at 22.0%, Atlanta Braves batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 54.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.3%.
- That creates a slim 0.8% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -114 / YRFI -106 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 16-20 (44.4%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Atlanta Braves K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Philadelphia Phillies K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Citizens Bank Park carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short left field porch (329ft); Elevated playing surface; Art Deco design.
- First pitch forecast: 50F with 13 mph winds from the NW. Humidity: 72%.
- Wind advisory: 13 mph winds from the NW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: D.J. Reyburn.
- Career NRFI rate: 52.2% across 90 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.014 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 4.9 combined runs, with Atlanta Braves projected for 2.0 and Philadelphia Phillies for 2.9.
- That's 3.1 runs below the posted total of 8.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Philadelphia Phillies by 0.9 runs.