- Starter matchup: Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) vs Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 50% probability, lean YRFI, -2.6% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Jacob Misiorowski holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Jacob Misiorowski carries a 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, while Eury Pérez sits at 4.15 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Jacob Misiorowski at 14.18 K/9, Eury Pérez at 9.35 K/9.
K projections: Jacob Misiorowski at 5.2 (line 6.5)
Eury Pérez projected at 4.2 (line 5.5).
Eury Pérez has a 67.1% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Jacob Misiorowski.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
- Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
- He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Miami Marlins batters K at 22.0%, Milwaukee Brewers batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 49.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim -2.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Jansen Visconti runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 16-20 (44.4%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Milwaukee Brewers K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Miami Marlins K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- loanDepot park carries a 0.94 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.90 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme pitcher-friendly; Retractable roof; Suppresses HRs significantly.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Jansen Visconti.
- Career NRFI rate: 45.6% across 90 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.974 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.2 combined runs, with Milwaukee Brewers projected for 2.6 and Miami Marlins for 2.5.
- That's 2.3 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.