- Starter matchup: Tobias Myers (New York Mets) vs Javier Assad (Chicago Cubs).
- Lineup status: confirmed by both teams.
- NRFI model: 50% probability, lean YRFI, -3.6% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Tobias Myers holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Tobias Myers carries a 3.00 ERA and 0.80 WHIP, while Javier Assad sits at 5.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Tobias Myers at 6.60 K/9, Javier Assad at 5.17 K/9.
K projections: Tobias Myers at 4.3 (line 5.5)
Javier Assad projected at 4.5 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Tobias Myers holds a 69.2% career NRFI rate, Javier Assad at 72.6%. Combined average: 70.9%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Tobias Myers (New York Mets) is projected for 4.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Javier Assad (Chicago Cubs) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The New York Mets lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Chicago Cubs batters K at 22.0%, New York Mets batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 49.6% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.3%.
- That creates a slim -3.6% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -114 / YRFI -106 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Adam Hamari runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 16-20 (44.4%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
New York Mets K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Chicago Cubs K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Wrigley Field carries a 1.05 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.09 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Ivy-covered left field wall; Wind factor from Lake Michigan; High wall in left (11.5ft).
- First pitch forecast: 47F with 14 mph winds from the WNW. Humidity: 55%.
- Wind advisory: 14 mph winds from the WNW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Adam Hamari.
- Career NRFI rate: 50.0% across 94 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.025 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with New York Mets projected for 2.7 and Chicago Cubs for 2.8.
- That's 2.5 runs below the posted total of 8, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.