- St. Louis enters on a five-game winning streak at 13-8
- McGreevy owns a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP this season
- Meyer strikes out 9.15 batters per nine innings
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Michael McGreevy holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Michael McGreevy carries a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, while Max Meyer sits at 4.12 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Michael McGreevy at 4.98 K/9, Max Meyer at 9.15 K/9.
K projections: Michael McGreevy at 4.2 (line 3.5)
Max Meyer projected at 5.0 (line 5.5).
First-inning scoring: Michael McGreevy holds a 57.9% career NRFI rate, Max Meyer at 61.9%. Combined average: 59.9%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Michael McGreevy (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
- Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
- He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Miami Marlins batters K at 22.0%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 40.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a slim -13.5% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -105 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Scott Barry runs a tight zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 16-22 (42.1%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- loanDepot park carries a 0.94 run factor (pitcher-friendly).
- Home run factor: 0.90 — the park suppresses HR power.
- Park notes: Extreme pitcher-friendly; Retractable roof; Suppresses HRs significantly.
- Roof: Retractable.
Climate controlled. Roof expected closed. Standard 72F conditions, no wind factor.
- Home plate umpire: Scott Barry.
- Career NRFI rate: 59.0% across 61 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly tight.
- K factor: 0.917 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 2.6 combined runs, with St. Louis Cardinals projected for 2.6 and Miami Marlins for 0.0.
- That's 5.9 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors St. Louis Cardinals by 2.6 runs.