- Mariners riding two-game winning streak at 12-15
- Bryan Woo features 2.25 ERA and 0.88 WHIP
- Cardinals have lost two straight, now 14-11
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Bryan Woo holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Bryan Woo carries a 3.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while Matthew Liberatore sits at 4.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Bryan Woo at 6.94 K/9, Matthew Liberatore at 5.64 K/9.
K projections: Bryan Woo at 5.1 (line 5.5)
Matthew Liberatore projected at 4.5 (line 4.5).
First-inning scoring: Bryan Woo holds a 68.6% career NRFI rate, Matthew Liberatore at 71.4%. Combined average: 70.0%.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Matthew Liberatore (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Seattle Mariners lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. St. Louis Cardinals batters K at 22.0%, Seattle Mariners batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 46.3% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a slim -7.2% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -105 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Vic Carapazza runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 26-26 (50.0%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
Seattle Mariners K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Busch Stadium carries a 1.01 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.04 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Retractable roof; Relatively neutral dimensions; Gateway Arch viewable from stadium.
- Roof: Retractable.
- First pitch forecast: 74F with 4 mph winds from the NE. Humidity: 52%.
- Temperature drops from 74F at first pitch to 78F by the late innings.
- Home plate umpire: Vic Carapazza.
- Career NRFI rate: 52.0% across 98 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.029 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.1 combined runs, with Seattle Mariners projected for 2.4 and St. Louis Cardinals for 2.7.
- That's 2.4 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.