- Mariners riding three-game winning streak at 13-15
- Cardinals on three-game losing skid at 14-12
- Hancock posts 2.83 ERA with 8.79 strikeouts per nine
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Emerson Hancock holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Emerson Hancock carries a 2.86 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, while Michael McGreevy sits at 2.97 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Emerson Hancock at 8.31 K/9, Michael McGreevy at 5.67 K/9.
K projections: Emerson Hancock at 5.1 (line 4.5)
Michael McGreevy projected at 4.2 (line 3.5).
First-inning scoring: Emerson Hancock holds a 61.9% career NRFI rate, Michael McGreevy at 57.9%. Combined average: 59.9%.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Emerson Hancock (Seattle Mariners) is projected for 5.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Michael McGreevy (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Seattle Mariners lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. St. Louis Cardinals batters K at 22.0%, Seattle Mariners batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 40.0% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 52.4%.
- That creates a slim -12.4% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -110 / YRFI -110 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire John Bacon runs a wide zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 28-27 (50.9%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are probable as of this writing.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Busch Stadium carries a 1.01 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.04 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Retractable roof; Relatively neutral dimensions; Gateway Arch viewable from stadium.
- Roof: Retractable.
- First pitch forecast: 78F with 10 mph winds from the SE. Humidity: 51%.
- Wind advisory: 10 mph winds from the SE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: John Bacon.
- Career NRFI rate: 47.7% across 65 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 0.977 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 2.8 combined runs, with Seattle Mariners projected for 0.0 and St. Louis Cardinals for 2.8.
- That's 5.7 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors St. Louis Cardinals by 2.8 runs.