- Kai-Wei Teng brings 2.16 ERA and 0.90 WHIP to Camden Yards
- Shane Baz owns 5.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP for Orioles
- Daniel Johnson posts 12.5 percent barrel rate in key matchup
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Kai-Wei Teng holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Kai-Wei Teng carries a 2.16 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, while Shane Baz sits at 5.08 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Kai-Wei Teng at 8.64 K/9, Shane Baz at 7.31 K/9.
K projections: Kai-Wei Teng at 5.3 (line 5.5)
Shane Baz projected at 4.8 (line 4.5).
Shane Baz has a 73.7% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Kai-Wei Teng.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Kai-Wei Teng (Houston Astros) is projected for 5.3 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 4.8 strikeouts against a posted line of 4.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Houston Astros lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Baltimore Orioles batters K at 22.0%, Houston Astros batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 57.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 53.5%.
- That creates a slim 4.3% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -115 / YRFI -105 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Jordan Baker runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 31-29 (51.7%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Houston Astros K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Oriole Park at Camden Yards carries a 1.03 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.08 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Left field wall angles away; Narrow left field alley; Elevated field area.
- First pitch forecast: 62F with 9 mph winds from the SSE. Humidity: 54%.
- Wind advisory: 9 mph winds from the SSE may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Jordan Baker.
- Career NRFI rate: 57.0% across 86 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 0.999 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 2.0 combined runs, with Houston Astros projected for 2.0 and Baltimore Orioles for 0.0.
- That's 7.0 runs below the posted total of 9.0, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection favors Houston Astros by 2.0 runs.