- Cardinals riding three-game winning streak at 17-13
- Paul Skenes sports 2.48 ERA and 0.72 WHIP
- Pirates have lost four consecutive games
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Paul Skenes holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Hunter Dobbins carries a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, while Paul Skenes sits at 3.18 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Hunter Dobbins at 8.31 K/9, Paul Skenes at 10.32 K/9.
K projections: Hunter Dobbins at 4.1 (line 5.5)
Paul Skenes projected at 5.2 (line 5.5).
Paul Skenes has a 86.8% career NRFI rate. No first-inning data available for Hunter Dobbins.
Both starters throw from the R side, limiting platoon splits for either lineup.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Hunter Dobbins (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.1 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The St. Louis Cardinals lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. Pittsburgh Pirates batters K at 22.0%, St. Louis Cardinals batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 58.7% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 50.0%.
- That creates a moderate 8.7% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI +100 / YRFI -122 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Brian O'Nora runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 34-31 (52.3%) on official picks this season.
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are confirmed as of this writing.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- PNC Park carries a 1.00 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 0.98 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Right field wall angles; Elevated RF corner; Allegheny River backdrop.
- First pitch forecast: 48F with 11 mph winds from the WNW. Humidity: 79%.
- Wind advisory: 11 mph winds from the WNW may impact fly balls.
- Home plate umpire: Brian O'Nora.
- Career NRFI rate: 56.3% across 87 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Slightly wide.
- K factor: 0.955 (below average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.5 combined runs, with St. Louis Cardinals projected for 2.8 and Pittsburgh Pirates for 2.7.
- That's 2.0 runs below the posted total of 7.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.