- Dodgers have lost two straight games entering Thursday
- Cardinals riding four-game winning streak at home
- Sheehan projects 5.0 strikeouts versus 5.5 line
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Matthew Liberatore holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Emmet Sheehan carries a 4.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while Matthew Liberatore sits at 4.75 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Emmet Sheehan at 9.57 K/9, Matthew Liberatore at 5.64 K/9.
K projections: Emmet Sheehan at 5.0 (line 5.5)
Matthew Liberatore projected at 4.2 (line 3.5).
First-inning scoring: Emmet Sheehan holds a 63.7% career NRFI rate, Matthew Liberatore at 71.4%. Combined average: 67.6%.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Emmet Sheehan (Los Angeles Dodgers) is projected for 5.0 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Matthew Liberatore (St. Louis Cardinals) is projected for 4.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 3.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. St. Louis Cardinals batters K at 22.0%, Los Angeles Dodgers batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 49.5% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 51.2%.
- That creates a slim -1.8% edge on YRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -105 / YRFI -115 at FanDuel.
- Home plate umpire Chris Guccione runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 34-33 (50.7%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Los Angeles Dodgers K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
St. Louis Cardinals K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Busch Stadium carries a 1.01 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.04 — the park neutral for HR power.
- Park notes: Retractable roof; Relatively neutral dimensions; Gateway Arch viewable from stadium.
- Roof: Retractable.
- First pitch forecast: 61F with 5 mph winds from the W. Humidity: 29%.
- Temperature drops from 61F at first pitch to 54F by the late innings.
- Home plate umpire: Chris Guccione.
- Career NRFI rate: 55.0% across 80 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.005 (league average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 5.0 combined runs, with Los Angeles Dodgers projected for 2.4 and St. Louis Cardinals for 2.5.
- That's 3.5 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.