- Starter matchup: Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles) vs Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees).
- Lineup status: projected until official release.
- NRFI model: 65% probability, lean NRFI, +9.8% edge.
Pitching Matchup
On the season, Ryan Weathers holds the ERA edge in this matchup. Kyle Bradish carries a 5.03 ERA and 1.82 WHIP, while Ryan Weathers sits at 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Strikeout rates: Kyle Bradish at 9.26 K/9, Ryan Weathers at 10.47 K/9.
K projections: Kyle Bradish at 5.2 (line 5.5)
Ryan Weathers projected at 5.5 (line 6.5).
First-inning scoring: Kyle Bradish holds a 91.4% career NRFI rate, Ryan Weathers at 82.3%. Combined average: 86.8%.
This is a RHP vs LHP matchup, creating potential platoon advantages in both lineups.
Strikeout Projections
Our strikeout model weighs pitcher K rate, opponent lineup whiff tendency, park factors, and umpire zone size to project total strikeouts per starter.
Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles) is projected for 5.2 strikeouts against a posted line of 5.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) is projected for 5.5 strikeouts against a posted line of 6.5. The projection is close to the line with no actionable edge.
He faces a moderate-K lineup that strikes out at 22.0% with a 28.0% whiff rate.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup is more vulnerable to strikeouts in this matchup. New York Yankees batters K at 22.0%, Baltimore Orioles batters at 22.0%.
NRFI & First 5 Analysis
Our NRFI model analyzes both starting pitchers' first-inning profiles, the top-of-order hitters in each lineup, the umpire's historical zone, and environmental factors to produce a probability estimate. For this game, the model assigns a 64.8% probability of no runs in the first inning, compared to the market's implied probability of 54.9%.
- That creates a moderate 9.8% edge on NRFI.
- The best available line is NRFI -122 / YRFI +100 at FanDuel.
- This qualifies as a top pick in our publication system.
- Home plate umpire Lance Barrett runs a average zone. See the umpire section below for full career data.
- Our NRFI model sits at 36-37 (49.3%) on official picks this season.
Prop Edges
Lineup & Matchup Breakdown
Lineups are projected as of this writing.
Baltimore Orioles K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
New York Yankees K vulnerability: 22.0% strikeout rate, 28.0% whiff rate.
Ballpark, Weather & Umpire
- Yankee Stadium carries a 1.04 run factor (neutral).
- Home run factor: 1.11 — the park elevates HR power.
- Park notes: Short porch in right field (314ft); Monument Park in center field; High walls in left-center.
First pitch forecast: 58F with 7 mph winds from the WNW. Humidity: 48%.
- Home plate umpire: Lance Barrett.
- Career NRFI rate: 60.2% across 93 games tracked.
- Zone tendency: Average.
- K factor: 1.021 (above average strikeouts in his games).
Run Projections & Total
- Our projection model puts the total at 6.0 combined runs, with Baltimore Orioles projected for 2.9 and New York Yankees for 3.2.
- That's 2.5 runs below the posted total of 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the Under.
- The run projection is essentially a coin flip between these two teams.